Jim Naseum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 (edited) This is a petty good brief on the bubble/bust model of oil since the 70s. One aspect I found interesting was the commentary on putting rigs in the hold mode. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article48969.html Sent from my SM-T330NU using Tapatalk Edited February 12, 2016 by jo56steph74 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason str Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 My two slicer malfunctioned the second time I used it. JJK Carl, don't get the one that JJ did. Toasters are very complicated machines, probably still trying to get the bugs worked out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bella Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 (edited) The current oil price is absolutely a symptom of the ongoing significant slow down of the production of goods based economies in China, India and Brasil. The lack of continued and growing demand for petroleum along with the increased supply (through increased producible reserves) will have the world's producing countries locked into a race to the bottom. Soon that could manifest in bankruptcies worldwide (of entire countries) that will make Greece look a small hick-up. Imagine what will happen in the Middle East if Saudi Arabia is among the first to fail? The period from 1929 to 1939 was the last time this kind of economic uncertainty happened and the fallout was WWII. ^ This is the only post so far in this thread that remotely understands the issues as they pertain to the bigger picture. Everything else is a micro-opinion of the current situation. This is a macro issue - worldwide, and stems back to the original earthquake, which was the near-financial implosion beginning in 2007. Oil is the canary in the coal mine for the world economic system. Go back and look at what oil was trading at just prior to the events beginning in 2007/8 and you'll have an understanding of what we are facing. We are entering worldwide deflation and people aren't consuming. At the same time because of obligations and reckless management, countries are going broke; they are looking for capital. The Saudi's have bills to pay just like we do, and a populace to keep happy. While there were factors in their decision to maintain pumping (inflict pain on the shale industry in the U.S.), they also needed to maintain their high level of income during falling oil prices so they decided to make up the difference in quantity. Now Iran is coming online and they need money too. They don't care what the price of gas is in the U.S. and they will flood the market even more. Capacity is just about at the limit and they will soon be looking for bathtubs to store overproduction/underuse. The Baltic Dry Index is at an all-time low. Pay attention to what is going on at a global scale. It's much more important than the price of gas at your local grocery outlet. HSBC (Deutsch Bank) is in trouble. They manage about $72 Trillion in Derivatives and if they go down it'll make Lehman look like a walk in the park. Europe is implementing NIRP; Janet Yellen just hinted at doing the same - only to help prop up failing banks. This is further deflationary as who is going give the banks their money to keep them solvent - back to mattress stuffing? Pile into the U.S. Dollar? Probably, which will cause too much strength. Electronic money is on the horizon. Governments way to collecting 100% tax and good luck explaining those thousands you had lying around when you go to turn it in for your electronic wallet - they will assume you were avoiding taxes on it and take it. Good luck in the court system, where it's 'Justus" for them. They'll use the excuse that they are trying to make it hard for terrorists to fund their operations. All of this is because the current monetary system has reached its end point. Time for something new. But the powers that be enjoy the current system and are not going to go quietly into the night. They'll rape every dime from it that the people will allow them to take. NSA snooping isn't about looking for terrorists, nothing but a cover story. They're looking for money hidden away. Why else didn't they stop the Boston bombers? The terrorists in California? Yet government tax revenue is at an all-time high? Stop looking at the world through what you see locally because it isn't even a fraction of what is actually happening. The world is all connected and the bigger picture is not very rosy. Studying History, what usually accompanies these types of events is war. All you have to do is look at what is going on in the M.E. - Russia in Syria, the U.S. in Syria, now the Saudis and probably Turkey going into Syria. That's a recipe for disaster but makes perfect sense with all of the financial turmoil. All for ISIS? Bolony. This issue has it's roots in an agreement going back years between the U.S. and the M.E. to run a pipeline into Europe because of Russia's dominance of that regions energy supply. Syria needed to be overthrown and a puppet government installed to make it happen. Obama drew a line in the sand with Assad and the Russians diffused the whole situation...remember? So what was the alternative? Ukraine. Most of the pipelines from Russia to Europe run through the Ukraine (google it). So the U.S. attempted to destabilize the Ukraine. Russia's response? Send in ground troops. Again the west was thwarted (yes, Russia knows what the game is and isn't going to allow it to happen.) So now Ukraine is off the table, but wait, we're back in Syria trying to overthrow Assad again! And what does Russia do? Send in air support to bolster the ground forces. The proxy armies of the west are nearing collapse. One more city to take and it's over for the west. So the last ditch effort is to send in ground troops from Saudi Arabia... Don't flame me. I'm just the messenger. Most Americans can't comprehend the larger issues and cannot follow the dots over a period of years. And for those thinking I'm peddling some grand conspiracy, cool. Enjoy your life over the next decade or more while you try to figure out what really is going on. Debate is healthy and I'm all for exchanging ideas as long as you've got something other than 'but the government says.' Because all you need to know is it's their system and they want it to continue. They aren't interested in telling you this shyte is close to going under. TLDR; we are screwed and most people don't even know it or why. EDIT: I changed ZIRP to NIRP. Edited February 12, 2016 by Bella 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Negative rates are bad for banks. Check out the euro banks stock prices. http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/negative-interest-rates-are-spreading-across-the-world-here%e2%80%99s-what-you-need-to-know/ar-BBpq87e?li=BBnb7Kz People seem to keep buying things too, at least in the US http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-spending Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 (edited) Because all you need to know is it's their system and they want it to continue. They aren't interested in telling you this shyte is close to going under. TLDR; we are screwed and most people don't even know it or why. I like your comments. I think there is a reduction possible that is easy to follow forward: "The 400 year era of capitalism is played out." That system, a debt based constant growth model, can only continue while new horizons for growth in consumption exist. Growth around the world has slowed. The inverse of the growth curve is interest rates (abstractly). We are now seeing NIRP introduced in parts of the world. Negative interest is a tool to combat negative growth. In short, consumers will be paid to consume! (Again, as an abstract). I think it's hard to see how consumers can do enough. We are entering the final bubble stage, a grand bubble of leverage throughout all sectors of the economy. The global debt can not be rolled, and collapse is the only possible result. The transition will be a very wild ride for most. Sent from my SM-T330NU using Tapatalk Edited February 12, 2016 by jo56steph74 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The current recovery from the 2008 crisis had been utterly weak. We have not even got real GDP growth above 2.8% after nearly 8 years! Sent from my SM-T330NU using Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bella Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 just a few links to help: Baltic dry index.... http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm Russia pipelines.... http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=russian%ee%80%81+pipelines+in+%ee%80%80ukraine&view=detailv2&&id=BB10F3B2EC851AFBDB5DB589D71DDEA557E0D174&selectedIndex=0&ccid=mTQ%2fBPMa&simid=608046685706390578&thid=OIP.M99343f04f31a3e7bfa37aac5da617de3o0&ajaxhist=0 Janet Yellen on NIRP....http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/09/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bella Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 (edited) Negative rates are bad for banks. Check out the euro banks stock prices. http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/negative-interest-rates-are-spreading-across-the-world-here’s-what-you-need-to-know/ar-BBpq87e?li=BBnb7Kz People seem to keep buying things too, at least in the US http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-spending - I didn't say the politicians were smart. But they are desperate and they are trying anything and everything to keep it going. - The U.S. consumer is but a fly on an elephant compared to world-wide trade and production. When I say people aren't buying I'm referring to the world-wide economy and not just people but corporations, banks, industries and yes, countries. It's waaay bigger than the American consumer. Take a look at shipping rates (BDI) and movement of goods on a global scale. Edited February 12, 2016 by Bella Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The problem expressed in one graph: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bella Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 (edited) Because all you need to know is it's their system and they want it to continue. They aren't interested in telling you this shyte is close to going under. TLDR; we are screwed and most people don't even know it or why. I like your comments. I think there is a reduction possible that is easy to follow forward: "The 400 year era of capitalism is played out." That system, a debt based constant growth model, can only continue while new horizons for growth in consumption exist. Growth around the world has slowed. The inverse of the growth curve is interest rates (abstractly). We are now seeing NIRP introduced in parts of the world. Negative interest is a tool to combat negative growth. In short, consumers will be paid to consume! (Again, as an abstract). I think it's hard to see how consumers can do enough. We are entering the final bubble stage, a grand bubble of leverage throughout all sectors of the economy. The global debt can not be rolled, and collapse is the only possible result. The transition will be a very wild ride for most. Sent from my SM-T330NU using Tapatalk ^ This in a nutshell. Yes. . . . . . I get skepticism. It's healthy and I employ a great deal of it in my life. But you may want to consider that even though you do not know who I am, what I do for a living, or where I come from (I haven't divulge anything personal for very good reasons), that perhaps I've taken it upon myself to try and do the best I can to warn people. Perhaps I am 'in the know.' Perhaps I am inside the beltway or placed in such a position as to have inside information. Perhaps I'm a kook. I cannot convince anyone, nor will I even try, of what is coming. All I can do is put in out there and hopefully some people take notice and start digging into the issues themselves. If you choose to ignore the warning signs that's up to you. They are out there to see you just have to want to see them. But if you are reading this thread and laugh, that's wreckless. Edited February 12, 2016 by Bella Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If you choose to ignore the warning signs that's up to you. Unless the popular mainline media provide the warnings, people will never listen to individual experts. The media can not provide a warning because that would be in opposition to their own economic interests. Can you just try to imagine mainline media saying, "This is not the time to finance a new house or car!" No, you can not. And, they never will. At best, they will report a little bit by looking in the rear view mirror. Looking ahead? No. The entire global economy is overleveraged. And, NO ONE wants to take a haircut of any kind. They all keep blowing the bubble higher by inventing a new financial product - a new derivative - while unable to expand the real economy, the one that makes desirable and necessary objects for life. You could visualize it like this: all the world's largest financial interest are at the poker table. The round of raises keeps circling the table, and each guy is borrowing (or simply printing) more money for the next raise. Eventually, like it or not, the raises must end, and the hands must be shown. Since all the raises were IOUs - simple debt instruments - the new "winner" has won nothing real, and all the other players have gone bankrupt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJkizak Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Good grief, another abbreviation in the dictionary, "NIRP." JJK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If you choose to ignore the warning signs that's up to you What exactly can the little guy do, whether he knows what's coming or not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bella Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 (edited) If you choose to ignore the warning signs that's up to you What exactly can the little guy do, whether he knows what's coming or not? Very good question. First, realize that practically nobody is going to remain unscathed. We are entering uncharted territory as far as anybody alive to draw from for advice. But we do have history to look back in the sense that governments have collapsed in the past. Just this time it's the whole world collapsing at the same time. But you can help yourself by getting out of debt as much as possible; freeing up as much capital as you can and have it handy. History teaches us that when faith in government collapses there are only a few places to put your assets to weather the storm until a new system is put in place. In Rome, people horded their coins and actually buried them to keep the government from getting it. I'm not saying go bury your gold and silver, I'm just pointing out what people have done in the past. Gold by the way, is something they can and have outlawed. Just be aware of that and if you do convert your assets to gold make sure you have enough other assets to see you through while you cannot access the gold. If you have a pension be aware that they are likely going to come after it. It'll be under the guise that they are trying to protect it. But really they are just robbing it from you because they need it. I've seen whispers of this already. Take a look at what happens in other countries that have collapsed: food shortages, riots, political changes (Trump is a manifestation of the unrest in America). War. War always is in play during times like this. Nations are literally positioning themselves to survive. Be Aware. Edited February 12, 2016 by Bella Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fish Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If you choose to ignore the warning signs that's up to you What exactly can the little guy do, whether he knows what's coming or not? We can debate it...............wring hands, revolt , carry on cause there's nothing ordinary Americans can or will do. Some time back the nuts were put in charge of the nuthouse, what would a rational thinking person expect. All the world had was a few Countries to try to keep it together, then they went stupid too.... It's all part of evolution, nature will take care of the details. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fjd Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 (edited) HSBC (Deutsch Bank) is in trouble. They manage about $72 Trillion in Derivatives and if they go down it'll make Lehman look like a walk in the park. That sure is the “tip of the iceberg” and most of the derivative exposure is hidden from view in off-balance sheet transactions. I believe that derivatives are the “Elephant in the Living Room” and were the driving force behind the “too big to fail” concept. I need to update my information; however, during 2014 it had been estimated that the global derivatives bubble had grown to be 20% larger than it was just before the financial crisis of 2007/2008 hit. This financial bubble is far larger than anything we can imagine and it keeps growing. When this bubble finally bursts, I can surely see many of the nightmares written in this thread taking place for the world financial system, not just the US. During 2014, the Bank for International Settlements, estimated the total notional value of over-the-counter (OTC) derivative contracts around the world to be $710 trillion dollars (using zeros that is $710,000,000,000,000). There are other estimates that calculate the amount to well over a quadrillion dollars. . Good grief, another abbreviation in the dictionary, "NIRP." JJK Great concept, nothing like discouraging savings and encouraging borrowing and spending by "charging" a person to save. Let’s bring future spending into the present by making it very attractive to borrow (or get lulled into investing in very risky investments) and very unattractive to save. One problem is that most of what is left of the middle class doesn’t have enough saved to live a “middle class” lifestyle in retirement. The 2007/2008 credit crisis thoroughly decimated much of the middle class; imagine more of the same where the remaining portions of the middle class savings will be ravaged. Edited February 12, 2016 by Fjd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babadono Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Still paying over $2.50 up to $3.00(depending on grade) out here in So Cal. Greedy Bastards--- not the oil companies, the government hacks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fjd Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 My two slicer malfunctioned the second time I used it. JJK Carl, don't get the one that JJ did. Toasters are very complicated machines, probably still trying to get the bugs worked out. Since this seems to be one of those multi-topic threads, a few years ago CBS Sunday morning news did a segment called "gathering of the toaster collectors" at the annual meeting of the "Toaster Collectors Association" in Columbia, South Carolina. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnzeFhKnqHw 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babadono Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 regular was $1.34 And a good chunk of that is tax. And Uncle Obama wants to raise it another 25 cents a gallon. So they can waste more money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nothing like a corner-loaded toaster IMHO. Very efficient. Dave 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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