richieb Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 I've seen many times and on non argumentative threads that even I started where things go south quickly - hostile, argumentative, etc. - then closed. I'm glad to see this has gone in a very educational direction that really opens eyes. I had learned that these oil prices were a drag on the world economy but some of these comments are certainly scary and believeable, eye opening to be sure. No doubt there are some enlightened and intelligent members here with deep insight. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wvu80 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 What's the average rate for a loaf of bread? $2.00 a loaf, most Brands on loaves of bread, most places (Kroger, Walmart). Gas was at $1.43, a couple of weeks ago, but has gone up .20 lately. +++ For those of you who do a lot of UPS business, does it make you want to choke somebody that you are still be assessed a "fuel surcharge" on every shipment? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason str Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 All this toast talk reminds me of a part in one of my favorite movies when the Blues Brothers stop in for a bite to eat at Nate's deli on Maxwell street. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike stehr Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Or when Elwood makes toast on the stove. Toast and Ripple... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 On the Baltic Dry Index word is it's low due to an oversupply of vessels and a markedly decreased demand for (everybody's favorite) coal. Is the sky falling? Or are we just experiencing a prolonged period of slow growth, which is after all, still growth. A bear market such as the seventies saw is not out of the question, but we survived. I know that was stagflation and this is different so far. Two pieces of white toast. Dry. Carl will have four fried chickens and a coke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The historic oil price chart looks like a mountain range. It's a very volatile commodity. First, because actual reserves are essentially held in secret by the producing nations, and second, because the main players can very easily manipulate the market. This produces huge swings in the price. So, just as fast as it fell from 100 to 35, it can soar back to 100 again. It produces lots of new winners and new losers in each cycle. I wouldn't count on oil staying where it is now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I remember the big bust of the late eighties. People were walking away from their houses (mortgages). I ended up with a sweet deal on a house. Yes there are definitely pros and cons to disruptions in any one sector. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bella Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 (edited) On the Baltic Dry Index word is it's low due to an oversupply of vessels and a markedly decreased demand for (everybody's favorite) coal. Is the sky falling? Or are we just experiencing a prolonged period of slow growth, which is after all, still growth. A bear market such as the seventies saw is not out of the question, but we survived. I know that was stagflation and this is different so far. Two pieces of white toast. Dry. Carl will have four fried chickens and a coke. "Word is it's low due to an oversupply of vessels..." An oversupply of vessels once needed and kept busy because of a bustling world economy now rusting in port. No demand = oversupply. "(everybody's favorite) coal" Again, you are thinking strictly from the view of an American. Do you think china or Russia or India or...almost anyplace else where the other 6.9 billion people of the world doesn't use coal? Look at the history of the BDI. What happened to it during the 2008 meltdown? BTW, because of its global nature the BDI is one of the few metrics the government cannot fudge like they do the unemployment rate. If you want to know the health of the world economy, it's a great indicator. Edited February 12, 2016 by Bella Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 In the 20th century economic growth came from Housing, Infrastructure and Manufacturing. We know where manufacturing went, we know that there is no infrastructure spending to speak of, and here's the housing starts chart,. Today, too much of the growth economy (based on stock prices) is nothing but internet adverts, cheap handheld computers and entertainment. I'm not sure that will work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 By now everyone has owned 4 generations of PCs, 3 generations of Kindle readers, 4 generations of cheap tablets, 4 generations of flat TVs, and half dozen generations of miniature telephones. Can that really keep going? I am very suspect of that. And yet look at the stock prices and valuations for Google, Apple, Facebook, Netflix and compare to Ford, IBM, Alcoa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Again, you are thinking strictly from the view of an American. Do you think china or Russia or India or...almost anyplace else where the other 6.9 billion people of the world doesn't use coal? No, you are thinking that I am thinking that. However one of the world's largest economies has cut back drastically on coal. I'm not posting for you to defend the obvious. I am merely bringing up points for thought, perhaps discussion. The ship building industry needed to catch up with the aging of the fleet, and over compensated. The same thing is often seen in the aircraft industry. Sometimes there is more than the obvious. 5674, I have for a long time pondered that housing should ideally not be such a major component of the economy. Germany has done quite well without much new housing. This is to be expected with a stable population. What do they do---well they actually make things and sell them to people who need or want them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yes, look at BDI a la 2008 meltdown. Did the world come to an end (as we know it)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 5674, I have for a long time pondered that housing should ideally not be such a major component of the economy. Germany has done quite well without much new housing. This is to be expected with a stable population. What do they do---well they actually make things and sell them to people who need or want them. True enough. But in pure GDP terms, those lost billions in housing must be made up. See my previous chart on global GDP growth? it's pathetic and has been on a long slide. Debt must be rolled over - and that demands higher GDPs! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJkizak Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 By now everyone has owned 4 generations of PCs, 3 generations of Kindle readers, 4 generations of cheap tablets, 4 generations of flat TVs, and half dozen generations of miniature telephones. Can that really keep going? I am very suspect of that. And yet look at the stock prices and valuations for Google, Apple, Facebook, Netflix and compare to Ford, IBM, Alcoa. I am on the third generation of computers, I don't have a new flat TV (2006), I don't have a cell phone, (never) I don't have a Kindle Reader, (never) I don't have a tablet, (never) but I do plan to buy a new 21 x 9 OLED TV before the money runs out. JJK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 (edited) It's time to encourage manufacturing here. Cheap energy should help a lot right? I bet Germany would enjoy cheaper energy for their industry. (now I am indeed thinking like an American) Edited February 12, 2016 by oldtimer 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Our reserves of gas are growing radically in the USA. It's even killing off solar! I can see that as gas reserves grow and prices keep plummeting, yes, manufacturing could come back here considering that unions have been decimated, and the surplus labor has risen to almost historical levels. Labor participation extremely low. People have to begin to take any job they can find to pay for the mandated health insurance now that fines are climbing to the $000 of dollars. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 One additional point about oil. Militaries depend on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bella Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Again, you are thinking strictly from the view of an American. Do you think china or Russia or India or...almost anyplace else where the other 6.9 billion people of the world doesn't use coal? No, you are thinking that I am thinking that. However one of the world's largest economies has cut back drastically on coal. I'm not posting for you to defend the obvious. I am merely bringing up points for thought, perhaps discussion. The ship building industry needed to catch up with the aging of the fleet, and over compensated. The same thing is often seen in the aircraft industry. Sometimes there is more than the obvious. 5674, I have for a long time pondered that housing should ideally not be such a major component of the economy. Germany has done quite well without much new housing. This is to be expected with a stable population. What do they do---well they actually make things and sell them to people who need or want them. "I'm not posting for you to defend the obvious." I removed that line from my post - it was not appropriate and I apologize. Look at the numbers, even if the shipbuilding industry was updating it's fleet and overcompensated for the numbers to fall like they have been the overcompensation would have to border on incompetence. It's more than that. To assume that just because America cut back on coal usage that explains the drop in worldwide shipping demand is incorrect. The BDI isn't simply a reflection of coal. Here is a simply explanation: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is an economic indicator issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. Not restricted to Baltic Sea countries, the index provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. So you see it's not just coal. So don't focus on that. It's all major raw materials. Raw materials required for manufacturing and development on a global scale. If countries aren't growing, this indicator is the key to revealing it. No, in 2008 when the BDI collapsed we didn't fall into a dark age. But I'm sure I don't have to go into detail why (too big to fail bailouts, the fed balance sheet exploding to over $4 Trillion, ZIRP)? The system was saved by astronomical bailouts and 'heroic' feats of unprecedented proportion. I doubt most people even know how close we came to being thrown back to the stone age. And that's probably just as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'm among the minority who think a global collapse will have not just a dark side, but a bright side for humanity. As hierarchies fall, localization blooms. In a place like the USA, there exist enough tools that local success is possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bella Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Humanity needs a reset. I'm just not looking forward to going through it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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