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Elon's "BFR"


Mallette

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14 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

If the next rage is to be space travel, we are going to have to figure out how to surpass warp speeds dramatically.  4.2 light years is the distance to the nearest star.  All the rest in between - the moon, the planets, asteroids, etc. - are not habitable.  I don't see large populations living happily on barren surfaces just because we can put them in climate-controlled bubbles.

 

Remember once we access the Quantum world where there is no time then traveling the length of the galaxy can be done in an instant.

JJK

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33 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

If the next rage is to be space travel, we are going to have to figure out how to surpass warp speeds dramatically.  4.2 light years is the distance to the nearest star.  All the rest in between - the moon, the planets, asteroids, etc. - are not habitable.  I don't see large populations living happily on barren surfaces just because we can put them in climate-controlled bubbles.

Probably he is working on an app for that.

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There seems to be a Myth, or misconception, that NASA isn't in the space business any more.  They launch missions every year, 4 are schedule for next month, six already scheduled for next year including another trip to Mars.

 

There is a lot of big time bullshit in this thread, from every side. It is like you guys have completely forgot how government funding, contracts and project management work.  For starters NASA doesn't build anything, they either spec out,  pay for design competition, or (most commonly with their modern model) they joint venture with private enterprise.     They are doing this with both SpaceX and Orbital ATX on the contract to resupply of ISS.

 

The Commercial Crew program (manned space flight to/from ISS) was awarded to Boeing and SpaceX.  They are on track and manned tests are scheduled for next summer with the Boeing Starliner and SpaceX Dragon 2 capsules. The program was initiated by NASA, administered by NASA and development funding was provided by NASA.  If SpaceX doesn't get certified in that program they will have serious problems.  Forget Mars.

 

NASA is moving forward with components of the mission to Mars.  The Space Launch System (which will be more powerful than the Saturn V) is being built by Boeing with Orbital ATX.  Aero Rocketdyne performed another rocket engine test just last week on the engine which is Helium/LOX.

 

Elon Musk is a genius, but not a rocket genius.  He is a business genius who saw opportunity in government and military contracts for space exploration by being more competitive and grabbing a real rocket genius, Tom Mueller.  He has taken rocket engine technology to a new level and has exceeded thrust to weight ratios of 150/1.  He is working on Methalox engines and if he can perfect those the BFR will be a reality to Mars. He will leapfrog the others because you can resupply the fuel (methane) from the atmosphere on Mars.

 

For short hops my money is on Sierra Nevada Corporation and their Dream Chaser.  They have been awarded a half dozen flights to resupply ISS in Phase 2 of that NASA program.  Dream Chaser  was developed with NASA money.

 

SpaceX and Orbital and United Space Alliance exist because of NASA, not in spite of it.  I think Elon was a genius in seeing the opportunity to fill the need for private spacecraft and launch vehicles.  He has reduced the cost of a launch, so far, by over half.  This revolutionized the business and funding models of American aerospace.

 

Next year is a big year. Who will be certified for human flight, and when?  

 

Travis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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44 minutes ago, billybob said:

NASA has been in too much control. On my timeline, we should have gone there and back. By now, there should be a base station in progression there, and on the moon. that is just me.

Time waits for no man to rest upon their laurels of past achievement, achieve low earth orbit and master it. Then just lolly-gag around tripping over daisies while we wait for the next chapter to begin. NASA, is good at what they do. They just do not do enough, on time or, anytime soon. Soon to them is measured in years while for others it is measured in months. Looking into space with a telescope is one thing. Going there quite another. NASA idea of a timeline is, I got an idea: Let us hurry now and wait.

Just my very limited and still, rather humble yet honest opinion. Please elaborate on the bs you find in this thread. Sorry, but it is not self-evident. Think someone mentioned the redtape already.

Thanks, Billy

 

Let me what I can do to help you sort through it.

 

What leading rocket scientist laid out a feasibility study for going to Mars and when.

 

What was total cost of development going to moon in today's dollars?

 

What percent of total budget did NASA receive during Apollo.

 

When did NASA make a proposal to go to Mars?  Who killed it and when? 

 

What is NASA current budget? As a percentage of total Federal budget?

 

How much did the F22 and F35 cost to develop, and how long?

 

What makes rockets fly? To paraphrase, It funding.

 

The Rocket Equation has remained the same since the early 1900s, It isn't going to change unless you develop thrust from a source that doesn't burn up mass as you fly. (Which NASA developed and proposed for.second and 3rd stage rockets in original Mars.propisal).  

 

I guess I'm the one who is confused.  Who was it that directed NASA or approved NASA sending people to Mars and NASA failed to hit bench marks or milestones?  I assume that is what you are basing your time line on?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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24 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

No nation which expects to be a leader of other nations can expect to stay behind in this race for space...We choose to go to Mars not because it is easy, nor because it is hard, but because we have people on this planet who need to be sent there permanently, and now.

 

Ain't it the truth.

 

"Fly me to the moon . . , Jupiter and Mars."

 

Frank SInatra demands it.

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5 hours ago, dwilawyer said:

Elon Musk is a genius, but not a rocket genius.

REALLY take exception to that, but if you can give me some reason to accept it I am open.  A business genius would not be in the business of expending 100% of his energies on a trip to Mars.  Certainly no historical precedent for that.  Further, he is personally credited with the SpaceX engine design concepts whether he personally built them or not.  About the only thing in common with NASA's average 40 year old designs is a reliance on Newton's Laws.  If you've paid attention to my posts, I have not derided the great accomplishments of NASA...but I have pointed out they took many times the money and many times the time of what Musk...and others...are doing.  

 

As to bullshit on both sides, no problem if that is your opinion but it would be more courteous to specify just what you are flashing the BS button about as PWK did.  I've been here way too long to take offense at such comments, but IF I invoke one I have a record of addressing the issue directly.  

 

Dave

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2 hours ago, oldtimer said:

No nation which expects to be a leader of other nations can expect to stay behind in this race for space...We choose to go to Mars not because it is easy, nor because it is hard, but because we have people on this planet who need to be sent there permanently, and now.

Well, Brian, I fully agree.  Problem is we don't have remotely enough rockets to get all those who really need to be sent there...our best, our brightest, and those who really wish to be pioneers of a better future.

 

Dave

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2 hours ago, dwilawyer said:

I guess I'm the one who is confused.  Who was it that directed NASA or approved NASA sending people to Mars and NASA failed to hit bench marks or milestones?  I assume that is what you are basing your time line on?

Didn't quote your entire post in the interest of brevity as you make some good points and I really prefer to avoid point by point except in extreme debate conditions.

 

But even if NASA had the 100% percent public and government support it could never reach its goals as fast as Musk.  I'll answer only one of your questions, that of the peak cost to the taxpayer...4% at maximum for which the ROI was in the most conservative and skeptical estimates, 5 to 1.  

 

Dave

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2 hours ago, oldtimer said:

No nation which expects to be a leader of other nations can expect to stay behind in this race for space...We choose to go to Mars not because it is easy, nor because it is hard, but because we have people on this planet who need to be sent there permanently, and now.

Too late for us ... North Korea just announced their five year plan to conquer space.  All of it I guess. 

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saw a documentary about NK not too long ago on Nat Geo Channel.  Lisa Ling was the journalist, posing as a medical student there with a humanitarian medical team doing eye surgeries. They were allowed to film under restrictions. When the patients had their bandages removed and their eyesight was improved, they started bowing before pictures of Kim Jung Un, Kim Jung Il, and the third Kim (whatever his full name is). Anyway, they were thanking their supreme leaders for giving them their sight. It was kinda creepy. 

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1 hour ago, Mallette said:

BSM, my mistake for addressing the NK leaders to Mars post at all.  It was a red herring, and it got me.  I'll try to think before responding from now on here.  With my post count and experience here I should know better.  

 

Dave

nothing wrong with your post Dave.  I wasn’t intending to divert your topic into the wacky world of politics. I read about the NK space claim today and that popped into my mind when reading this thread, and you know enough about me by now to know that i’m always looking to inject some humor into any topic.  I fail miserably at times. Like when i was at my the funeral home for my Aunt’s viewing. I told my cousin, “When you told me that your Mom passed away, i believed you -- you didn’t have to show me.”  Nobody laughed and i realize that I’ve probably deserved a one-way trip to Mars on more than one occasion. 

 

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10 hours ago, BigStewMan said:

nothing wrong with your post Dave.  I wasn’t intending to divert your topic into the wacky world of politics. I read about the NK space claim today and that popped into my mind when reading this thread, and you know enough about me by now to know that i’m always looking to inject some humor into any topic.  I fail miserably at times. Like when i was at my the funeral home for my Aunt’s viewing. I told my cousin, “When you told me that your Mom passed away, i believed you -- you didn’t have to show me.”  Nobody laughed and i realize that I’ve probably deserved a one-way trip to Mars on more than one occasion. 

 

I know who is getting an invitation to mine. 

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