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End of Hurricane Season - 2007


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Dean has made landfall south of Tuxpan. Right now it looks to be in the eye, but will get lots of rain on the backside as it passes through. Because of the angle that Dean is approaching on west northwest and the coastline slopes away to the northwest, the areas to the south will take the hit first. There are some larger cities inland which could be subject to flooding. Again, Dean hit the coastline in an area without a lot of people.

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THE NHC ESTIMATE OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR POSSIBLY A WEEK.

THE AREA NEAR THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) WHERE THE WAVES LEAVE THE COAST OF AFRICA REMAINS FAVORABLE, BUT NOT FOR PRODUCING THE STORMS FURTHER NORTH.

KEEP YOUR FINGERS CROSSED, AND HOPE THE WEATHER GODS KEEP THE CONDITIONS LIKE THIS UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL DOWN.

UNFORTUNATELY, WE HAVE AT LEAST 40+ DAYS TO GO UNTIL THE LIKELYHOOD OF A MAJOR TROPICAL STORM IS MINIMAL

THE NHC TROPICAL ANALYSIS BRANCH DISCUSSION FOR TODAY IS AS FOLLOWS:

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO 29N76W COVERING THE W ATLC AND GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH JUST S OF HAITI NE TO 26N69W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 67W-70W. A BENIGN UPPER LOW/HIGH/LOW ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE A TYPICAL UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS E FROM AFRICA OUT TO 30W. LARGE BUT SOMEWHAT WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC TO ACROSS THE SE US AND N GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N55W. ALL OF THIS IS PRODUCING ABUNDANCE OF DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLC WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICALWAVES.

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Dean has made landfall south of Tuxpan. Right now it looks to be in the eye, but will get lots of rain on the backside as it passes through. Because of the angle that Dean is approaching on west northwest and the coastline slopes away to the northwest, the areas to the south will take the hit first. There are some larger cities inland which could be subject to flooding. Again, Dean hit the coastline in an area without a lot of people.

I bugged out of Leon Mexico yesterday PM. Origonal plan was to return home on Friday but I had the option not to take a chance.

So many small villages with little communication. Not sure what is more dangerous the flooding potential or the mudslides.

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System number 2 looked more organized yesterday, but has deteriorated some today. System 1 will bring some showers to Central America. Good news until at least the end of the week. AngelAfter that, who knows.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...ABOUT 900 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...REMAINS LIMITED AND
DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH

edit: This time I tried to save the actual pic instead of copying the image. When I copy, the pic keeps updating which is great, but does not show the progress from the previous image.

The system is a bit more organized today and moving at Dean pace. It's still probably three to four days outside of Puerto Rico range.

A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

http://smiley.smileycentral.com/download/index.jhtml?partner=ZSzeb097_ZNxmk673YYCA&utm_id=7925''>http://smiley.smileycentral.com/download/index.jhtml?partner=ZSzeb097_ZNxmk673YYCA&utm_id=7925' target=_blank mce_href="http://smiley.smileycentral.com/download/index.jhtml?partner=ZSzeb097_ZNxmk673YYCA&utm_id=7925">

post-6396-1381934415351_thumb.gif

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FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

A WEAKENING NON-TROPICAL LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.

ANOTHER NON-TROPICAL LOW...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD...HAS FORMED ABOUT 425 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THESE LOWS EXTEND A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TODAY...IF NECESSARY.


CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT MOVES OVER MAINLAND MEXICO
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MILSAT VIEW OF THE TWO SYSTEMS NEAR JAX AS OF THIS MORNING:


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Hey there Groomy,

I check in everyday to see what you have "on the chalkboard". Looks like we need to keep an eye out.

Please keep posting 'em and we'll keep readin' em!

BTW, if you get a chance take a look at some of the pics Colter took of Katrina damage while he was down here.

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dtel's wife: Christy, I've been staying away from just "posting" for posting's sake on this unless it looks like there is something that we really need to watch..... In this case, however.......

On that note, and to do due dilligence to the "weather gods...." [li]We just ordered a new 17kw dedicated generator for the house.... Go figure... I believe that if we order the generator, we all may be spared. I'm counting on Murphy's law - get a generator - and you won't need it.... We have a little 6k, and I can "borrow" a 15k, but we really need to make sure we can listen to the Klipschorns, Cornwalls, etc in nice air conditioning while waiting for a week for FPL to fix the power. Boy am I "spoilt", or what!![H]

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