Groomlakearea51 Posted August 22, 2007 Author Share Posted August 22, 2007 HERE'S THE MILSAT INFRARED IMAGE FOR THE ATLANTIC. YOU CAN SEE THE WAVES COMING OFF AFRICA AND THE WAVE OFF THE BAHAMAS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 22, 2007 Author Share Posted August 22, 2007 DON'T KNOW ABOUT THE OTHER IMAGERY, BUT THIS PRODUCT, A HIGH RES SAT IMAGE OF THE FLORIDA IMAGE FROM THE MILITARY, WILL DO FOR ME JUST FINE!!![] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 Dean has made landfall south of Tuxpan. Right now it looks to be in the eye, but will get lots of rain on the backside as it passes through. Because of the angle that Dean is approaching on west northwest and the coastline slopes away to the northwest, the areas to the south will take the hit first. There are some larger cities inland which could be subject to flooding. Again, Dean hit the coastline in an area without a lot of people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 Dean made landfall at Tecolutla, Mexico. Papantla, 47,000 is directly inland as is Poza Rica, 174,000. Hopefully these cities are spared as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 With the 5:00 update, Dean is now a tropical storm. In the last six hours, Dean moved directly westward. It's eye, or what's left of it is approaching the mountains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 An interesting picture: The tropical convergence zone off the western coast of Africa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 23, 2007 Author Share Posted August 23, 2007 THE NHC ESTIMATE OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR POSSIBLY A WEEK. THE AREA NEAR THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) WHERE THE WAVES LEAVE THE COAST OF AFRICA REMAINS FAVORABLE, BUT NOT FOR PRODUCING THE STORMS FURTHER NORTH. KEEP YOUR FINGERS CROSSED, AND HOPE THE WEATHER GODS KEEP THE CONDITIONS LIKE THIS UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL DOWN. UNFORTUNATELY, WE HAVE AT LEAST 40+ DAYS TO GO UNTIL THE LIKELYHOOD OF A MAJOR TROPICAL STORM IS MINIMAL THE NHC TROPICAL ANALYSIS BRANCH DISCUSSION FOR TODAY IS AS FOLLOWS: ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO 29N76W COVERING THE W ATLC AND GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH JUST S OF HAITI NE TO 26N69W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 67W-70W. A BENIGN UPPER LOW/HIGH/LOW ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE A TYPICAL UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS E FROM AFRICA OUT TO 30W. LARGE BUT SOMEWHAT WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC TO ACROSS THE SE US AND N GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N55W. ALL OF THIS IS PRODUCING ABUNDANCE OF DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLC WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICALWAVES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 23, 2007 Author Share Posted August 23, 2007 NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS BELOW: NOTE THAT THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DISSIPATING: WITHOUT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STORMS, WHEN THEY FORM, CAN STEER TO THE NORTHWEST. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Audio Flynn Posted August 23, 2007 Share Posted August 23, 2007 Dean has made landfall south of Tuxpan. Right now it looks to be in the eye, but will get lots of rain on the backside as it passes through. Because of the angle that Dean is approaching on west northwest and the coastline slopes away to the northwest, the areas to the south will take the hit first. There are some larger cities inland which could be subject to flooding. Again, Dean hit the coastline in an area without a lot of people. I bugged out of Leon Mexico yesterday PM. Origonal plan was to return home on Friday but I had the option not to take a chance. So many small villages with little communication. Not sure what is more dangerous the flooding potential or the mudslides. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted August 23, 2007 Share Posted August 23, 2007 Good call Flynn. The one that is worse is the one that happens where you are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 23, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 23, 2007 We're glad to see you made it home safe and sound! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 25, 2007 Author Share Posted August 25, 2007 ABNT20 KNHC 250906 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 27, 2007 Share Posted August 27, 2007 System number 2 looked more organized yesterday, but has deteriorated some today. System 1 will bring some showers to Central America. Good news until at least the end of the week. After that, who knows. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVELOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...ABOUT 900 MILESWEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...REMAINS LIMITED ANDDISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TOOCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH edit: This time I tried to save the actual pic instead of copying the image. When I copy, the pic keeps updating which is great, but does not show the progress from the previous image. The system is a bit more organized today and moving at Dean pace. It's still probably three to four days outside of Puerto Rico range. A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUTMIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE PRODUCINGDISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONSARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT15 TO 20 MPH.http://smiley.smileycentral.com/download/index.jhtml?partner=ZSzeb097_ZNxmk673YYCA&utm_id=7925''>http://smiley.smileycentral.com/download/index.jhtml?partner=ZSzeb097_ZNxmk673YYCA&utm_id=7925' target=_blank mce_href="http://smiley.smileycentral.com/download/index.jhtml?partner=ZSzeb097_ZNxmk673YYCA&utm_id=7925"> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 30, 2007 Author Share Posted August 30, 2007 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. A WEAKENING NON-TROPICAL LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ANOTHER NON-TROPICAL LOW...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD...HAS FORMED ABOUT 425 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THESE LOWS EXTEND A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TODAY...IF NECESSARY. CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVINGTROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOMEPOTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT MOVES OVER MAINLAND MEXICOLATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MILSAT VIEW OF THE TWO SYSTEMS NEAR JAX AS OF THIS MORNING: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 30, 2007 Author Share Posted August 30, 2007 HERE'S THE NHC "WATCH" GRAPHIC: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 30, 2007 Author Share Posted August 30, 2007 HERE'S THE SURFACE ANALYSIS; NOTE THE PREDICTED POTENTIAL DIRECTION OF TRAVEL FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC. WHILE THE SYSTEM(S) OFF THE EAST COAST DO POSE POTENTIAL THREATS, THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CERTAINLY BEARS CLOSE WATCH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 30, 2007 Author Share Posted August 30, 2007 THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS CONCERNED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL PROBLEM LOCATED OFF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS: HERE'S THE MILSAT PHOTO AS OF A COUPLE HOURS AGO: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 30, 2007 Author Share Posted August 30, 2007 HERE'S THE "BIG PICTURE" FROM THE MILSAT SYSTEM: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 30, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2007 Hey there Groomy, I check in everyday to see what you have "on the chalkboard". Looks like we need to keep an eye out. Please keep posting 'em and we'll keep readin' em! BTW, if you get a chance take a look at some of the pics Colter took of Katrina damage while he was down here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 30, 2007 Author Share Posted August 30, 2007 dtel's wife: Christy, I've been staying away from just "posting" for posting's sake on this unless it looks like there is something that we really need to watch..... In this case, however....... On that note, and to do due dilligence to the "weather gods...." [li]We just ordered a new 17kw dedicated generator for the house.... Go figure... I believe that if we order the generator, we all may be spared. I'm counting on Murphy's law - get a generator - and you won't need it.... We have a little 6k, and I can "borrow" a 15k, but we really need to make sure we can listen to the Klipschorns, Cornwalls, etc in nice air conditioning while waiting for a week for FPL to fix the power. Boy am I "spoilt", or what!![H] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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