Hurricane Season - 2010

[jhoak]

Late July for us is way too soon. Normally things get "tricky" the first week of September for Florida....

I seem to remember August 13, 2004 being a VERY bad day around these parts...

[dtel]

[]

[Dflip]

The latest report with a 60% chance of it becoming a tropical storm. As Marshal pointed out above, the Sahara keeps kicking them out and some will become hurricanes. You can see the two or three following this tropical disturbance. There have been other hurricanes in July, but the majority occur from mid August to early October, although there are exceptions. Two of the hurricanes on this list are from 2005. Katrina was the next big one that year followed by Rita and Stan. 2007 was a worse year, but fortunately for the US, neither of the cat 5's, Dean and Felix never made landfall in the states.

It looks like it might be a good year to follow the paths of the hurricanes because it looks like you might very well get some this year.

Below is a list of early season hurricanes. http://www.hurricaneville.com/historic.html

Hurricane Audrey--A rare early season major hurricane, this storm struck in Texas and Louisiana in June, 1957. It was the most powerful hurricane ever in the month of June, and it rapidly intensified over the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall leaving many caught off guard.

Hurricane Agnes--A minimal Category One Hurricane upon landfall in Apalachicola, Florida in June, 1972, it proceeded to cause devastating floods in Northeastern Pennsylvania as it combined with another low pressure system to dump heavy rains over the area. Damage from this storm was estimated to be about $2.1 billion dollars.

Hurricane Bertha--The earliest hurricane to form in the Eastern Atlantic. Developed just West of the Cape Verde islands in the last week of June, 1996, and made landfall as a Category Two Hurricane over Wilimngton, North Carolina on July 12, 1996. Killed 12 people, and caused some $275,000,000 dollars in damage.

Hurricane Dennis--Was a rare powerful July hurricane that formed in the Southeastern Caribbean a few hundred miles to the West-Northwest of Grenada on the evening of July 4th, 2005. Gradually strengthening in the days that followed, Dennis brought heavy rains to Jamaica, the Caymans, and Hispanola, but bore the brunt of its assault on Cienfuegos, Cuba with 150 mph winds. The coastal Cuban community was devastated as telephone poles and wires were knocked down. Just missing Category Five strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, Dennis cross the narrow, but rugged terrain of Cuba, and re-emerged in the Gulf of Mexico as a Category One storm before rapidly intensifying to a Category Four Hurricane in the early morning hours of July 10th, 2005. Dennis eventually made landfall near Pensacola, Florida on the afternoon of July 10th. So far, the death toll from the storm stands at 32, and inital damage estimates range from $1 billion to $2.5 billion.

Hurricane Emily--Was another rare powerful July hurricane that formed in the Atlantic on the heels of Hurricane Dennis during the week of July 10th, 2005. The storm became the most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the month of July after its winds reached a peak speed of 160 mph, and its minimum central pressure dropped to 929 mb, or 27.43 inches of Hg. This just surpassed the levels previously established by Dennis, and made it the first Category Five Hurricane of the 2005 season. Three more Cat Fives would follow. Although Emily ransacked the island of Grenada, which was still recovering from Hurricane Ivan's impact in September, 2004, the storm mercifully spared the islands of Jamaica and the Caymans as well as weakened before making landfall in the Yucatan. The storm did regain some steam after losing its punch over the plateau of the Yucatan Peninsula, and made a final landfall as a major hurricane in Northeastern Mexico with winds of 125 mph. The storm was responsible for 64 deaths, and initially $300,000,000 dollars in damage. It also contributed to the rise in oil prices by forcing the evacuation of employees of Mexico's primary oil company, PEMEX, from their offshore rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

200 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF
HISPANIOLA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...
EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[Dflip]

8 a.m report A bit less organized, but still a good chance of something stronger in the next 48 hours.

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. CONSEQUENTLY...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION HAS BEEN POSTPONED UNTIL TOMORROW. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO FORM TODAY BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE
BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

[Dflip]

It looks like it's picking up again.

800 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A INCREASE SINCE YESTERDAY IN
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS OF ACKLINS AND GREAT INAGUA...AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

2. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[Groomlakearea51]

But..... the tracks have shifted ever so slightly.... and if they stay like that, I won't have to "shlep" the 100 pound hurricane shutters (3/4 thick, reinforced PT) to the windows this afternoon.....

[CECAA850]

Hmmmm. I'll be staying tuned.

[Groomlakearea51]

Pay particular attention to the GFDL model..... [Y]

[Mallette]

Pay particular attention to the GFDL model.....

It's suggesting it will dissipate off the north coast of Cuba?

Dave

[Groomlakearea51]

[Groomlakearea51]

Pay particular attention to the GFDL model.....

It's suggesting it will dissipate off the north coast of Cuba?

Dave

The GFDL model will be the more accurate one as it's run out further. Right now NHC consensus model is the best guess.

[CECAA850]

Great................. they've got it moving pretty fast, and I'm 1 day post-op knee surgery.

[Groomlakearea51]

Hoo weeee!!!!!

Look at them tracks!!!!!!!

Good for me..... [A]

The temps are starting to drop now as the system sucks the hot air away from us. It'll be windy for the next 36-48 hours as she passes, but it's better than 10" rain.....

[Groomlakearea51]

Folks in Louisiana need to watch this as it very well could become a Cat-1 hurricane. It's a fast mover so let's hope it does not get out of hand.

[Dflip]

It's suggesting it will dissipate off the north coast of Cuba?

If my map reading skills are good, it has it hitting the coast of Louisiana east of Marsh Island and heading just east of Layfayette. Of course, anything east of there takes the biggest hit.

The good news is it's only projected as a tropical storm at the moment. Better now than another month when it wouldn't be too far to the west of Katrina's path with a lot more wind.

[Mallette]

If my map reading skills are good, it has it hitting the coast of Louisiana east of Marsh Island and heading just east of Layfayette. Of course, anything east of there takes the biggest hit.

On the first map, that line simply ended just off the north central Cuban coast. The next one Marshal put up had it extended...in the wrong direction, I might add.

Dave

[dtel]

Whoever get this one may get a bonus, oil, that could be one messy tidal surge.

[Dflip]

Tropical Storm Three is now Bonnie. Still projected as a tropical storm, but it now has a name.

Just to make it interesting, the price of oil just went up, although some of you in the Gulf area will get extra for free. The relief wells may be down for upwards of two weeks or longer if the Sahara keeps kicking out new storms.

[Dflip]

The latest update. The path shows an eastwardly movement towards New Orleans. There is some discussion as to whether Bonnie will intensify or regress over the next couple of days. The good news is the maximum projected winds are 45 knots and it's moving at a quick pace, 19 mph.

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BONNIE
HAS FOUND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.  THE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A
PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 42 KT...BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF
34 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008 MB.  THESE DATA SUPPORT
MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AS FEW WEST
OR NORTHWEST WINDS WERE FOUND.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH.  FOR NOW...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT BONNIE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A
CLOSED CIRCULATION AND REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AS BONNIE PASSED
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AN OBSERVING SITE ON STANIEL CAY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 37 KT.  

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT BONNIE IS MOVING FASTER AND HAS TURNED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16.  BONNIE
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT DURING FIRST 48 HOURS...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE
GUIDANCE IS NOTICEABLY FASTER...WHICH MAY BE IN PART FROM THE MORE
WESTWARD INITIAL LOCATION.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BUT IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS
REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 

THE UPPER-AIR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF BONNIE IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR
STRENGTHENING.  BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO THE FLOW BETWEEN AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE.  THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
WEAKEN IN 36-48 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OF
BONNIE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS WHICH SHOWS LITTLE...
IF ANY...INTENSIFICATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/0900Z 24.1N  78.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 25.0N  81.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 26.2N  84.1W    40 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 27.6N  86.9W    45 KT
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 28.8N  89.1W    45 KT
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 31.5N  92.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 34.5N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[Dflip]

The 11 am update.

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

BONNIE IS NOT A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM. DUE TO STRONG
SHEAR...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WHICH IS ALREADY OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS TRAILING THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEARBY INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A FEW RAINBANDS
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  BONNIE WILL BE MOVING
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WHERE THE CIRCULATION COULD BECOME EVEN
MORE DISRUPTED. THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...GLOBAL
AND HURRICANE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST ON WEAKENING OR EVEN
DISSIPATING THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY. BONNIE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A
TROPICAL WAVE AS IT CROSSES FLORIDA BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
SHOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWING
THE LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

BONNIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING CURRENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES AND THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BONNIE IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300
DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS...AND BECAUSE THE PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE MUCH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 36 HOURS. MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE...OR SHOULD I SAY...THE MODELS THAT DO NOT WEAKEN
THE CYCLONE...SHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL SPREAD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/1500Z 25.4N  80.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 26.2N  83.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 27.5N  86.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 29.0N  88.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 30.5N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 33.0N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED