Guest Steven1963 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The catalyst for this thread is my desire to pass information to the 'family' that they may or may not be aware of. I've seen signs from others on this forum that they too have a wealth of information that may be important to the members in the coming months. I'll open the topic with a graph: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/02/20150209_bdiy.jpg For those of you not familiar with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) it is, simply put, a data set from world wide shipping carriers for the demand of the largest ships in the world to move product (world trade). The data set is perhaps one of the few that is not available for skewing by politics. In other words, what you see is it and it is not 'messed with' for political expediency. The BDI is now at the lowest level in its entire history. EVER. Please note the dip right at the economic collapse back in 2008. Now please see that it is even lower than that level now. World wide demand for shipping to move product around the world is collapsing. Meaning people/companies are not consuming. Meaning deflation. This would lend itself to some tough times shortly ahead. And I for one just want to begin to prepare anyone who might be willing to listen to get ready. For certainly, something is coming. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimjimbo Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 For certainly, something is coming. Holy smokes, first it's the repudiation of any evidence that global warming is happening, and we should all go about our merry way, and now it's wholesale economic collapse due to a slowdown of products being carried by ships....., We are most definitely screwed.... And yes, something is coming....hopefully it's my newly restored turntable and another pair of Chorus II's this week. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twk123 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 You mean the Federal Reserve constantly running the currency printing press isnt actually improving the economy but just floating the stock market in another bubble? Who would have thought. Just wait until the student loan bubble bursts... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deep3shot Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 You mean the Federal Reserve constantly running the currency printing press isnt actually improving the economy but just floating the stock market in another bubble? Who would have thought. Just wait until the student loan bubble bursts... No truer words have been written. I hasten to add that the student loan bubble is larger than that of the mortgage crises. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Steven1963 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 For certainly, something is coming. Holy smokes, first it's the repudiation of any evidence that global warming is happening, and we should all go about our merry way, and now it's wholesale economic collapse due to a slowdown of products being carried by ships....., We are most definitely screwed.... And yes, something is coming....hopefully it's my newly restored turntable and another pair of Chorus II's this week. I sense that perhaps you are a little bit 'butt hurt' over my unmitigated gall to stand up to the overpowering (NOT) evidence of global warming, but I implore you to keep the threads separate. I also sense that you are of a political persuasion that prefers to be spoon fed data from specific sources that shall remain nameless. Be it as it may. Consider yourself warned. And when it happens (not if), I advise you to run to big daddy government to save your bacon. Which does, BTW, include me in that collective. Hope that works out for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oscarsear Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 This is why gasoline has become so cheap lately. Worldwide consumption has plummeted and there is a supply glut. Economic indicators in major manufacturing countries like Japan and Germany are not good. Here in America the new credit bubble in in the automotive sector where car loans have been handed out to anyone able to fog a mirror. Americans are advised that the economy is 'rebounding' and they look around and wonder 'where'? As for the ACA.......... I had a regular M.D. visit last fall. 15 minutes at most. Just the visit was over $400 bucks. My part was close to $200. Just the facts....... and things are not very rosy and our politicians have a habit of massaging numbers to make them appear nifty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimjimbo Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I also sense that you are of a political persuasion that prefers to be spoon fed data from specific sources that shall remain nameless. Mr. Moderator, Mr. Moderator....he said "Political", and "Government", and, and, and, "Bacon"!!!! Oh my, hurtful. I love bacon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ski Bum Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The economic doomsayers are like stopped clocks: right twice a day. They will inevitably be correct when markets correct, but the long term historical trend is up. Got time? Let compounding do the heavy lifting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max2 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Some are reporting too many ships ordered by ship owners in 2013 and it has diluted the demand for transit. Basically ship debt is skewing the market. Either way, the market needs and is due a correction 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finallygotmyheresies Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 OP, would you recommend against purchasing a home? My closing date is Mar 10th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Please note the dip right at the economic collapse back in 2008. The graph does not indicate cause or effect. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Steven1963 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The economic doomsayers are like stopped clocks: right twice a day. They will inevitably be correct when markets correct, but the long term historical trend is up. Got time? Let compounding do the heavy lifting. Compounding what? Interest, I assume? Europe is charging savers to put money in the bank. Some banks here in the U.S. are doing the same thing now. The current economic climate is absolutely killing pensioners and retired folk when inflation is greater than the interest rate on their investments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twk123 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 (edited) You mean the Federal Reserve constantly running the currency printing press isnt actually improving the economy but just floating the stock market in another bubble? Who would have thought. Just wait until the student loan bubble bursts... No truer words have been written. I hasten to add that the student loan bubble is larger than that of the mortgage crises. Definitely more dangerous. If you cant pay your mortgage you lose your house but Student Loans are not able to be resolved through bankruptcy. Of course the government will never tell you they created this mess but eventually will be more than happy to offer "Loan Forgiveness" in exchange for votes. Unless we cut the Cancer of our Central Bank out of the economy we are perpetually screwed. The banking cartel simply runs the printing press and loans to major corporations for nothing thus flooding the economy with easy credit. Then when the market eventually adjusts and the bubble bursts, the cartel members get bailed out and buy up the losers for pennys on the dollar. Rinse and Repeat since 1913... Of course, every time is gets trickier because the dollar must be based on "something" in the worldwide marketplace so we run a global financial empire dictating that all oil must be sold in US dollars. If you dont play the game like Iraq did when they tried selling oil in Euros we simply call in the military and make up a story in the press. Edited February 9, 2015 by twk123 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Steven1963 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 (edited) OP, would you recommend against purchasing a home? My closing date is Mar 10th Funny you should ask. My timeframe for selling was planned for late summer, before October. And then I was going to go into a rental until next summer, after the beginning of the fall, which looks like October this year. That way I could sell on the high and buy on the down. But the wife had other ideas and our house is now up for sale and I've got a new one being built that will be done in late March. So much for my plan. YMMV. I am not versed enough to hand out planning data as detailed as when you should buy/sell a home. I was just trying to do what I thought was best in that regard. But, I've been looking at this for a long time and if you want a leg up to the other side, invest in metals this summer and watch them fly in the coming decade. Edited February 9, 2015 by Steven1963 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fjd Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 You mean the Federal Reserve constantly running the currency printing press isnt actually improving the economy but just floating the stock market in another bubble? Who would have thought. Just wait until the student loan bubble bursts... No truer words have been written. I hasten to add that the student loan bubble is larger than that of the mortgage crises. The mortgage market is over $8 trillion while the student loan market was $1.3 trillion based on second quarter 2014 data and the student loan market adds about $100 billion in new loans each year. At the current rate of $100 billion a year in new loan originations, it would take over 67 years to go from $1.3 trillion and reach the current mortgage market levels of $8 trillion. Interesting enough, according to a Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, about $100 billion of federal student loans are in default, which is approximately 9 percent of outstanding balances. What was the default rate on mortage loans during the credit crisis, 30% - 40%? Plus I'm not aware of the government securitizing student loans the way the investment banks did the mortgage loan bond securitizations. While the student loan debt is a real and growing segment of consumer debt, it is not even close to being on the same scale as mortgage debt. In addition, this market does not have similar potential for direct losses to the private sector as the majority of credit losses on student loans will be absorbed by the government. Based on these numbers, the student loan market is not likely to be categorized as the next “subprime crisis.” I agree that the full impact of increasing student loan debt that may default on consumers is currently not really understood or known. However, I suspect that the burden would more likely have an adverse impact on the purchasing power of borrowers and cosigners in the future. I suspect that even the securitizations and bond offerings of the subprime auto loan lending market at over $300 billion of over $900 billion auto lending market would not have the impact of the housing market. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twk123 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The economic doomsayers are like stopped clocks: right twice a day. They will inevitably be correct when markets correct, but the long term historical trend is up. Got time? Let compounding do the heavy lifting. Compounding what? Interest, I assume? Europe is charging savers to put money in the bank. Some banks here in the U.S. are doing the same thing now. The current economic climate is absolutely killing pensioners and retired folk when inflation is greater than the interest rate on their investments. Europe has been screwed for a long time now. The socialist system if flopping on its head because nobody had enough kids to enter the workforce to pay taxes for the retired people with longer life expectancy. Combine that with the consolidation of currency and erosion of national sovereignty via the EU, bank austerity measures from massive national debts and a cultural crisis as immigrants from the middle east flood in with a much higher fertility rate and you have a powder keg. Not to mention a really pissed off Russia because we overthrew a buffer nation's government less than 500 miles from Moscow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJkizak Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Gas is cheap because OPEC purposely kept the production up to take the price of oil down to about 40 dollars to put all of the USA shale guys out of business. Saudis can make money pumping oil at 30 dollars whereas the US shale guys need 50 to 70 dollars. They are having remarkable success in closing down the US oil industry. Let's see, QE3 or a depression? I pick QE3. JJK 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Steven1963 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 You mean the Federal Reserve constantly running the currency printing press isnt actually improving the economy but just floating the stock market in another bubble? Who would have thought. Just wait until the student loan bubble bursts... No truer words have been written. I hasten to add that the student loan bubble is larger than that of the mortgage crises. Much larger and more dangerous. If you cant pay your mortgage you lose your house but Student Loans are not able to be resolved through bankruptcy. Of course the government will never tell you they created this mess but eventually will be more than happy to offer "Loan Forgiveness" in exchange for votes. Unless we cut the Cancer of our Central Bank out of the economy we are perpetually screwed. The banking cartel simply runs the printing press and loans to major corporations for nothing thus flooding the economy with easy credit. Then when the market eventually adjusts and the bubble bursts, the cartel members get bailed out and buy up the losers for pennys on the dollar. Rinse and Repeat since 1913... Of course, every time is gets trickier because the dollar must be based on "something" in the worldwide marketplace so we run a global financial empire dictating that all oil must be sold in US dollars. If you dont play the game like Iraq did when they tried selling oil in Euros we simply call in the military and make up a story in the press. I agree with your assessment about the dollar. Our government will do whatever it has to in order to protect the reserve status because without it we go down. Russia and China are working to move away from the dollar now. Many smaller countries are following suit. China has been purchasing physical gold like there is no tomorrow. Russia has been increasing their reserves also. Germany has asked for their gold back; as have a handful of other countries. They know it is coming but they aren't going to tell me and you. If your a$$ is hanging out there in dollars when it happens, goodbye. But first, Europe. And with no where for the world to invest they'll buy the prettiest of the ugliest. That's the U.S. dollar. It'll continue to climb. Until it doesn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimjimbo Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The heck with metals, I'm buying pork bellies. That way, when the ships stop moving food product, and the masses are clamoring for cheap protein, there will be a run on pigs, and I'll get rich enough to finally pay off my student loans, and buy my 4th vacation home in Tuscany. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ski Bum Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The economic doomsayers are like stopped clocks: right twice a day. They will inevitably be correct when markets correct, but the long term historical trend is up. Got time? Let compounding do the heavy lifting. Compounding what? Interest, I assume? Europe is charging savers to put money in the bank. Some banks here in the U.S. are doing the same thing now. The current economic climate is absolutely killing pensioners and retired folk when inflation is greater than the interest rate on their investments. Agreed, the current situation is ripping off all the grandmas all across the country who are trying to live off interest. The smart grandma's got out of the bond game and have enough cash to live on for years, with the rest invested in an aggressive portfolio of top notch funds. Compounding of what you ask? Of whatever you have saved, assuming you have been taught the importance of personal finance, living within your means, and investing wisely. It take a decade or so to see the results, and the discipline required is not easy in today's 'keep up with the joneses' consumerist rat race, but it can be done. I'm doing it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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