Poll & Prediction: Autonomous Car Equipment at 5k by 2019

[DizRotus]

Dave,  

 

There's no point trying to persuade the unwilling.  Soon they will have as much luck trying to drive their antique cars amongst autonomous transportation, as McCloud (you know Dennis Weaver) would have riding his horse on a limited access highway.  The river will flow around and over those who think they can stubbornly resist progress.

[oldtimer]

1 minute ago, DizRotus said:

The river will flow around and over those who think they can stubbornly stop progress.

Duck, and cover...

[Mallette]

11 minutes ago, DizRotus said:

The river will flow around and over those who think they can stubbornly resist progress.

Pretty much Lao Tzu "The bow that does not bend is soon broken."  I certainly understand love of the old ways.  I collect kerosene lamps of several kinds and sorely miss corner stores run by neighbors and so many things.  But I embrace change...especially change with so many benefits such as this paradigm shift will bring.  

 

Little of what I've presented is of my own opinion, but that of industry experts who are generally very conservative.  My wildest predictions probably wouldn't be wild enough to reflect the reality.  I was trying to tell my coworkers what changes the PC would bring back in the late 1970s and the response was similar...especially to my saying they'd all have one in a decade or so.  I worked in the early cellular industry in the early 90s and nobody believed what I suggested was on the way.  But my wildest speculation on both those things (and others) turned out to be ridiculously conservative.

 

This will be as well.  Those who hate what I've repeated so far are going to be REALLY grumpy old men.

 

Dave

[DizRotus]

You won’t catch me wasting my breath trying to dissuade others from investing in slide rules or buggy whips. I’d sooner sell Yellow Pages ads.

[Travis In Austin]

1 hour ago, Mallette said:

Not from me.  Again, do the research.  Actually, basic logic will tell you it's factual given you cannot be held responsible for that which you do not control.  There may still be laws against open containers for a while, but if you are not driving you can't be held for DWI.  Certainly you cannot be held responsible for injuring another person when neither of you is in control.  Really hard to see anything even surprising there, much less bombastic.  Anyway, I've said if I am around (and I plan to be) we'll check this out from time to time to see how it's going.  

As to what the insurance companies are good with, do you work for one or why do you care?  I'm certainly looking forward to not having to purchase liability...since I can't be held liable for the actions of a GM or Tesla computer.  

 

Dave

Yes you can, and would be.  Your insurance company would have to bring in manufacturer as a third-party.

 

Elevators are autonomous vehicles, like all things that require maintenance,  they still fail and cause injuries.  

 

Will an autonomous vehicle know it is driving on bald tyres?   That it can't stop in time because of worn brakes?

 

I would just like a Level 4 car to be available, because I'm ready. 

[Mallette]

9 hours ago, dwilawyer said:

Will an autonomous vehicle know it is driving on bald tyres?   That it can't stop in time because of worn brakes?

Seriously?  Certainly wouldn't trust one that couldn't handle that simple observation that even I can do.  My cheap Elantra tells me when a tire is low.  I might also add that the majority of human drivers either aren't aware or don't care about those things.

Yes, insurance will still be paid...but by the manufacturer and you'll pay only once through the sticker price...and that increase will be WAY below what you pay now.  Again, not my prediction but from a variety of sources.

 

Dave

Edited November 29, 2017 by Mallette

[CECAA850]

It's just like today Dave.  People drive on bald tires because they can't afford new ones.  Put off oil changes and brake jobs so they can buy groceries.

[DizRotus]

The whole transportation model will change.  People will no longer need — or be permitted— to keep beaters on the road because they can’t afford better.  The cost, convenience and safety of on demand not individually owned autonomous vehicles will be more affordable.

 

Rail against the change, or try to see opportunities.  As a child, in the 50s, I recall seeing old,  but still operating, cargo sailing ships in Baltimore  Harbor, hauling bananas IIRC.  I’m sure the captains of sail powered ships argued against the “newfangled” steam powered ships, but you can see how that went.  Sailing survives as recreation, non-autonomous cars (retronym alert) will do likewise.  Large scale ground transportation of goods and passengers will largely be controlled by computers, similar to what already takes place in the sky.

[CECAA850]

38 minutes ago, DizRotus said:

The whole transportation model will change.  People will no longer need — or be permitted— to keep beaters on the road because they can’t afford better.  The cost, convenience and safety of on demand not individually owned autonomous vehicles will be more affordable.

While I agree with your sentiment, I feel mankind will always find ways to skirt the system.  Just because something is illegal or not permitted doesn't mean that it won't happen.

[DizRotus]

I understand what you’re saying, but, today, the black market demand for counterfeit buggy whips and knock-off horse shoes, to quote W.C. Fields, “ . . . is virtually nil.”

[Gilbert]

22 hours ago, DizRotus said:

Dave,  

 

There's no point trying to persuade the unwilling.  Soon they will have as much luck trying to drive their antique cars amongst autonomous transportation, as McCloud (you know Dennis Weaver) would have riding his horse on a limited access highway.  The river will flow around and over those who think they can stubbornly resist progress.

 

That's why there are more advanced, more modern detective vehicles, like the peugeot that Columbo drove.

[Gilbert]

11 hours ago, DizRotus said:

I understand what you’re saying, but, today, the black market demand for counterfeit buggy whips and knock-off horse shoes, to quote W.C. Fields, “ . . . is virtually nil.”

 

 

shyt, I'm having to shell out $500 to fix my daughters' western saddle, not exactly cheap, but the best quote I could get..... in Mexico.  

[oldtimer]

11 minutes ago, Gilbert said:

 

 

shyt, I'm having to shell out $500 to fix my daughters' western saddle, not exactly cheap, but the best quote I could get..... in Mexico.  

Custom pay for custom work.

[DizRotus]

1 hour ago, Gilbert said:

 

That's why there are more advanced, more modern detective vehicles, like the peugeot that Columbo drove.

 

Tom Magliozzi of Car Talk fame delivered what I thought was a funny line.  When it comes to cars, the French imitate no one, and no one imitates the French. 

[Travis In Austin]

21 hours ago, Mallette said:

Seriously?  Certainly wouldn't trust one that couldn't handle that simple observation that even I can do.  My cheap Elantra tells me when a tire is low.  I might also add that the majority of human drivers either aren't aware or don't care about those things.

Yes, insurance will still be paid...but by the manufacturer and you'll pay only once through the sticker price...and that increase will be WAY below what you pay now.  Again, not my prediction but from a variety of sources.

 

Dave

It will go way down, I don't think it will go away entirely because maintenance will be the responsibility of the owner and any damages caused by failure to maintain it.  

 

I guess it could go away if the car.locked itself out everytime a warning light came on and new sensors were installed like electronic sensors on your tyres that will activate when they are bald and you won't be able to start your car unless you replace the tyres.

 

When it happens it will probably start out as an exemption from the statute that requires people to insure their car.  The exemption will be for having a certain level of autonomous vehicle.  You will still need to carry um/uim coverage because of all of the uninsured in non-autonomous vehicles who will still be sharing the road with you.

 

 

[oldtimer]

3 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

It will go way down, I don't think it will go away entirely because maintenance will be the responsibility of the owner and any damages caused by failure to maintain it.  

 

I guess it could go away if the car.locked itself out everytime a warning light came on and new sensors were installed like electronic sensors on your tyres that will activate when they are bald and you won't be able to start your car unless you replace the tyres.

 

When it happens it will probably start out as an exemption from the statute that requires people to insure their car.  The exemption will be for having a certain level of autonomous vehicle.  You will still need to carry um/uim coverage because of all of the uninsured in non-autonomous vehicles who will still be sharing the road with you.

 

 

That assumes the individual ownership model.  I agree, if you take it to the next level, that someone will have to have liability insurance.

[Travis In Austin]

3 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

That assumes the individual ownership model.  I agree, if you take it to the next level, that someone will have to have liability insurance.

I don't see a public only model for a.long, long time.  I think it will be individual ownership model with companies like UBER providing supplemental public access.

 

It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out.  It would be nice just to have a car available at Level 4.

[JJkizak]

I can see it now---On vacation  riding in my autonomous vehicle and it quits running on the freeway. Cop stops and his readout of my vehicle says one of the sensors failed and your vehicle must be repaired before riding again. Also it is red tagged and must be towed to the repair facility for $250.00. Upon arriving at the repair facility the owners of the vehicle learn that it will take 3 weeks to get the new sensor and the cost will be $1,000.00 for a 50 cent sensor. Because the owners are on vacation they will have to rent a motel room for 3 weeks at $100.00 per day plus the cost of the meals at $50.00 per day. Now the sensor has arrived and the car was repaired but the vehicle must be towed to the car dealer to be reprogrammed/certified for the new sensor installation

for $500.00. This repair action of course assumes that everything goes without a hitch/hiccup.

JJK

[CECAA850]

On ‎11‎/‎28‎/‎2017 at 9:54 PM, Mallette said:

Those who hate what I've repeated so far are going to be REALLY grumpy old men.

Stay off of my lawn.

[DizRotus]

1 minute ago, CECAA850 said:

Stay off of my lawn.

 

He will.  Dave @Mallette doesn’t want to be hit by your autonomous mower.