Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?

[MyOwn]

Yeah man,  the usa world we are living in....you make your bed now lie in it.

[oldtimer]

Just now, Jeff Matthews said:

Apparently in agreement that bail-outs are needed... unless I am missing something.

Bail outs will be forthcoming.  They have to if they have any morality.  I think they have already promised as much.  Recently there was a white house meeting with airline execs.  Airlines are being slaughtered by the bans,  do the math.

[Jeff Matthews]

26 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Bail outs will be forthcoming.  They have to if they have any morality.  I think they have already promised as much.  Recently there was a white house meeting with airline execs.  Airlines are being slaughtered by the bans,  do the math.

I agree.  I'm pretty sure the money shall pour forth.  I don't know what the new bill contains; I have to catch up.

[oldtimer]

4 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

Where We Are :

 

I saw this chart today, a more complete chart than I ever saw before.  Superb.  It is VERY encouraging to me, because it looks like, compared to other Bear Markets, we have only just begun, or it appears at best, we are about half way there.  Notice 1929?? We were 50% over 1929 valuations in 2019 and Jan-Feb 2020. What does that relate to the extent of a possible decline??  What if its 95% peak to trough??    Look at this comparative chart very carefully, think about it, and please tell us what you see  and think : 

 

 

                                                    Days of trading is the horizontal scale,  percent from the Top, is the vertical scale.    

 

 

 

                       

 

            For the record, I think this :  We have only JUST begun.  This could become the Bear of all Bears, superb to sell into, and even eventually, the greatest          

            buying opportunity of our lifetime.   Opportunity abounds !!!   Good luck to all.

 

Jeff Medwin

But you will be dead.

[BigStewMan]

tell ya in six months

[Jeff Matthews]

4 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

please tell us what you see and think

I think the chart is insufficient, although I am not going to suggest your forecast is wrong.  I think there are many factors which come into play concerning valuation.  For example, what were interest rates in 1929?  How about at the points of the other dips?  In 1929, so we were taught, the government was more laissez faire.  These days, not nearly as much.

 

There can be almost countless variables involved, and so I am not going to make an effort to list them.  I just wanted to share my thought that the chart shows dips at various points in time, and that's about all.

 

By the way, if P/E ratios factor into valuation, why would the market values drop 95%?  That would seem to defy using P/E ratios as yardsticks in the first place.

 

 

[oldtimer]

Liquidity was a major problem in the pre depression crash.  That will not happen again.  PE's have no reason to go 95% lower.  It is not a true valuation.  But he is talking about a panic market.  So if it does go to 95% down, then only an idiot would not buy in, due to severe undervaluation.  It's not the bear of all bears, that is wishful think among the bears.  It is a recession though, or will be.  Keep in mind most recessions last 18 months.

[oldtimer]

A lot younger than you.  And it is tongue in cheek, not poor taste, I thought you were intelligent enough to get it.  Maybe I was wrong.  

[oldtimer]

If it is going down to green there, then the fascists have a lot to worry about, depending upon when it happens,

[Jeff Matthews]

8 hours ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

RE P/E    :   Cruise over to D.Short.Com, Investment Advisors, and read all about it.  Here in a nutshell:

If P/E is of no interest, then what factors are?  Just price?  I used to buy Snickers bars for a dime, and I doubt we're ever going back to that.

[billybob]

Even with penny stocks or no P/E

ratio to speak of, rational people

are subject to take advantage of a rally however briefly. With discipline, one can make  a nice little packet, or more. Especially in an irrational at times volatile environment. There is always a bull market somewhere...

 

Edit: Not a stock advisor...

[billybob]

Not a stock advisor...but am not going to be deleting what have heretofor said. Do your DD...

[billybob]

Just now, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

 

You said this

 

" 

Even with penny stocks or no P/E

ratio to speak of, rational people

are subject to take advantage of a rally however briefly. With discipline, one can make  a nice little packet, or more. Especially in an irrational at times volatile environment. There is always a bull market somewhere...

"

 

Understand, from the above verbiage, you are still looking for a bull market somewheres.  That is bass ackwards Billy. 

 

The whole world is bankrupt, and we have just started the world-wide economic decline !!   The trend is your friend.  In bear markets, unless you are super sharp, maybe ON the floor, you don't usually buy the dips, as in a bull market.  No Billy.  Not at all.  Bear Market, Investing 101 dictates you wait for rallies, and SELL into all rallies

 

BTW Billy, do you know the difference between an investment and a speculation?   

 

If you made money on it, .................it was an investment.   

 

🙂

 

Jeff 

Not going to delete previous. Have been trading investing for awhile.

Happy with my results.

 

Not going to be short on anything.

Just me and as said by someone, not going to be holding an education seminar on this forum.

Respectfully, thanks!

 

 

 

[Jeff Matthews]

1 hour ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

Price is possibly the most important thing, along with judging trading and market action.  What you sold it at, and what you bought-in at, is what matters the most IMHO.

In other words, the only thing that matters is what the public believes. 

 

I still think there is so much money out there that stocks are coming back.  I don't see any reason why people will not be enamored by them again after sitting in bonds or CD's and making nothing.  Maybe a real estate crash nudges people back to stocks; who knows?  The one thing for sure is that money makes money through a variety of different symbols of value. 

 

"Stocks have died; stocks have risen.  Stocks will come again!"  

[Jeff Matthews]

1 minute ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

 

Do you buy and sell stocks Jeff?? Are you holding stocks now?  Do you intend to buy stocks ??  They just cut interest rates, 58 minutes ago,  to about Zero.  Putting a trillion bucks in.  Markets should fly.  Intend to participate??

 

I intend to continue buying monthly into a fund composed of 60% equities and 40% debt.  I don't pick; I leave it to fund managers.

[Schu]

GREAT READY TO BUY!

[sputnik]

Just now, Dow futures are down by around 1,000 points after the press conference.  It’ll be interesting to watch the Asian markets and Wall Street tomorrow.  Does 0% interest just amp up JDM’s earlier investor credit graph??

[oldtimer]

Lower rates should ameliorate that, if they translate down into them.  The main point is, they should just shut up.  Every time they open their mouths, confidence in leadership drops.  As seen with your futures report.  Have we ever, I mean ever, seen such a lack of competence before?  And seriously, I have long been amazed at what goes on.  Decades in all truthfulness.

[oldtimer]

6 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

And the world goes bankrupt??

interesting concept.  If the world is bankrupt, then no one is bankrupt.  Who is there to collect?  And collect what?  We, they , are all bankrupt.  As Monty Python would say, start again.

[Jeff Matthews]

45 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

YES, the world is bankrupt in my personal opinion.

Ron Paul's been saying that for 50 years.