Hurricane Season - 2008

[Mallette]

I am sending my family out of Seabrook tomorrow and boarding the house. The Klipschorns are on the north side, but the Frazier Elevens are on the south wall, both on the second floor. I am going to wrap the Elevens as they are irreplaceble.

I am staying put with our two cats to protect my systems.

I am thinking I'll battery up my t-amp and run my MBS-5 music server from a 12 volt battery. Gotterdamerung seems appropriate.

If you don't hear from me again, remember I went down with my system.

Dave

[BLSamuel]

If you don't hear from me again, remember I went down with my system.

Makes me think of Harry Chapin's "Dance Band On The Titanic"

Dance band on the Titanic

Sing "Nearer, my God, to Thee"

The iceberg's on the starboard bow

Won't you dance with me



Mama stood cryin' at the dockside

Sayin' "Please son, don't take this trip"

I said "Mama, sweet Mama, don't you worry none"

"Even God couldn't sink this ship"



Well, the whistle blew and they turned the screws

It turned the water into foam

Destination sweet salvation

Goodbye home sweet home



I'm in the dance band on the Titanic

Sing "Nearer, my God, to Thee"

The iceberg's on the starboard bow

Won't you dance with me



There was a trombone and a saxophone

The bass and drums were cookin' up the bandstand

And I was strummin' in the middle with this dude on the fiddle

And we were three days out from land



And now the foghorn's jammed and moanin'

Hear it groanin' through the misty night

I heard the lookout shout down "There's icebergs around"

"But still everything's all right"



Oh, the dance band on the Titanic

Sing "Nearer, my God, to Thee"

The iceberg's on the starboard bow

Won't you dance with me



They were burnin' all the flares for candles

In the banquet they were throwin' in first class

And we were blowin' waltzes in the barroom

When the universe went CRASH!



"There's no way that this could happen"

I could hear the old captain curse

He ordered lifeboats away, that's when I heard the chaplain say

"Women and children and chaplains first"



Well, they soon used up all of the lifeboats

But there were a lot of us left on board

I heard the drummer sayin' "Boys, just keep playin'"

"Now we're doin' this gig for the Lord"



I heard the dance band on the Titanic

Sing "Nearer, my God, to Thee"

The iceberg's on the starboard bow

Won't you dance with me



There's a wild-eyed boy in the radio shack

He's the last remaining guest

He was tappin' in a Morse code frenzy

Tappin' "Please God, S.O.S."



Jesus Christ can walk on the water

But a music man will drown

They say that Nero fiddled while Rome burned up

Well, I was strummin' as the ship go down



I'm in the dance band on the Titanic

Sing "Nearer, my God, to Thee"

The iceberg's on the starboard bow

Won't you dance with me



Dance band on the Titanic

Sing "Nearer, my God, to Thee"

The iceberg's on the starboard bow

Won't you dance with me



Dance band on the Titanic

Sing "Nearer, my God, to Thee"

The iceberg's on the starboard bow

Won't you dance with me

http://www.sing365.com/music/lyric.nsf/Dance-Band-on-the-Titanic-lyrics-Harry-Chapin/6187E15E08F10B3648256CAA002FC336

[customsteve01]

Dave and all the others on the south side of town,

Best of luck to you all. I will be on the north side helping run an airline during a huricane. Been there and "dun" it before. I will be helping friends batten down the hatches and tie everything down. looks like this one is going to be fun.

Steve

[billybob]

Houston mentioned, so ya'll be careful. Dennis changed our life some.

[CECAA850]

Looks like it ticked a bit farther north overnight. We're on a mandatory evac.

Carl

[billybob]

Good Fortune to you all!

[dtel]

Good Fortune to you all!

Yes, and with any luck it will just turn out to be an inconvenience, and not a major problem.

[CECAA850]

Yes, and with any luck it will just turn out to be an inconvenience, and not a major problem.

[Y]

[Mallette]

Hope floats. It's gonna be a major problem.

Got to find that T-amp and some batteries so I can keep some Wagner going loud in the middle of it.

Dave

[Groomlakearea51]

Sorry for the delay, but I had unknown, but serious (discovered yesterday) damage to the A/C system from TS Fay. The storm tore off the A/C handler drain pipe "vacuum overflow outlet" and every time the A/C ran, the handler would suck up the condeasation and deposit it (by massive dripping) on the dust filter. Result, water underneath the handler in the return area and about 1/2" water on the floor, seeping into drywall, tile grout, etc. Mess.... $1000 damages, etc.

In any event, here's the Military wind forecast for specific places, wind speeds and expected time or duration of those winds.

Beaumont, TX		9/12/08 15:00		9/12/08 21:00				9/11/08 21:00	9/12/08 9:00	Y
	to	9/14/08 1:00	to	9/13/08 20:00
Max Wind on Station		9/13/08 7:00		Max Speed / CAT	80	CAT 1
Houston, TX		9/12/08 19:00		9/12/08 23:00				9/11/08 23:00	9/12/08 11:00	Y
	to	9/14/08 1:00	to	9/13/08 21:00
Max Wind on Station		9/13/08 10:00		Max Speed / CAT	95	CAT 2
Ingleside, TX		9/13/08 1:00								N
	to	9/13/08 13:00	to
Max Wind on Station		9/13/08 8:00		Max Speed / CAT	45	N/A
Corpus Christi, TX		9/13/08 1:00								N
	to	9/13/08 13:00	to
Max Wind on Station		9/13/08 8:00		Max Speed / CAT	45	N/A

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the NHC discussion about Ike. I wish for everyone that they are wrong about what will happen on Saturday. At least we should hope for (and pray....) that the worst will be a very weak CAT-3 (which is what the Navy believes will be the scenario...)

WTNT44 KNHC 111506
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IKE IS MAINTAINING AN ATYPICAL WIND STRUCTURE. CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY BROAD WIND FIELD WITH MULTIPLE WIND MAXIMA AND RELATIVELY LITTLE TRANSPORT OF WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 103 KT 100 NMI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...BUT SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE WINDS IN THAT AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 65 KT. IN FACT... THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING AT THE SURFACE RECENTLY THAT QUITE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT 85 KT ADVISORY INTENSITY.

FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE WIND STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IS EVEN MORE CHALLENGING THAN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY... BUT IKE HAS PLENTY OF TIME FOR ONE OF THE OUTER MAXIMA TO CONTRACT AND FOR THE WINDS TO TRY TO CATCH UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...CURRENTLY ABOUT 945 MB. ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST...IT IS STRONG ELSEWHERE AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR COULD BE UPWELLING/MIXING OF
COOLER WATER AHEAD OF THE PATH OF IKE DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE EXPANSE OF STRONG WINDS. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NEAR LANDFALL RANGES FROM A CATEGORY FOUR FROM THE GFDL TO CATEGORY TWO FROM THE SHIPS MODEL... ABOUT THE ERROR ONE CAN EXPECT FROM AN OFFICIAL FORECAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE GUIDANCE MODELS... AND ANTICIPATES THAT IKE WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING THROUGH LANDFALL...WITH IKE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING UNTIL VERY NEAR LANDFALL... WHEN IT SHOULD GENTLY TURN TO THE RIGHT AT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS... WITH THE ECMWF ON THE RIGHT AND THE GFSTO THE LEFT. ONCE AGAIN... GIVEN THE TYPICAL FORECAST ERRORS FOR A 48 HOUR FORECAST...AND THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD... IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1500Z 25.5N 88.4W 85 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 25.9N 90.0W 90 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 26.6N 92.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 27.8N 94.2W 105 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 29.5N 95.9W 100 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/1200Z 34.5N 94.0W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/1200Z 38.0N 85.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/1200Z...ABSORBED

[Mallette]

The bay is rising, and the tide is out. 29.85 and falling. Winds 18mph E and thunder in the distance. And the storm is over 24 hours out.

It's gonna suck.

Dave

[Dflip]

Dave, good luck to you. I just checked where you are on Google Earth, which I love. You are on the wrong side of the hurricane and Seabrook looks to be pretty much... sea level. Ike has been an interesting storm as far as predictions. The initial estimates were probably fairly close, but each additional projection first went southwest and now northeast. Galveston keeps getting closer to the eye wall. Maybe the west end of Galveston Island is close to the spot where it hits land in the gulf.

Take good care of yourself. The projection is for 120 mph winds, so you might want to have some plastic around in case the roof leaks after some shingles are blown away. You have to protect those speakers. [] I will be thinking of you and hoping you are safe.

Get back to us when the power comes back up. Make sure you have lots of backup power because you likely to be out of it for a while. Your amp will likely need several batteries to keep you in peace until the family can make it back home.

[Mallette]

Thank you, kind sir.

My house is at 18 feet. However, I am concerned that since the storm drains empty into the bay they may back up. Speakers are on the second floor. I've brought in tarps in case the roof leaks. If it goes... Buh bye.

I am NOT looking forward to tomorrow night.

Dave

[customsteve01]

Dave,

Are you still planning on staying? If you do Hang on tight to something, I have a feeling this is going to be a bad one.

They are moving us here http://www.westlin.com/ till at least Sunday. We also have a bunch of rooms here http://www.woodlandsresort.com/index.html

I will be working tomorrow thru at least Monday. I just hope I get to go to the hotel it looks nice.

Steve

[Mallette]

Yep. Stickin' Sent the family north this morning. Closed the training center and sent the roughnecks north to Fort Worth. Looking at the maps and condition, we MAY get a slight break. I'd fully expected a cat 4, but the dry air off the coast is keeping her in check at the moment and she seems to be continuing to slide north. If the eye crosses north of High Island we take a beating but keep on ticking.

I'll be reporting barometric and such as long as the power holds. If cable remains on I may be able to keep my laptop on the net via a UPS for a while.

Fasten your seat belts, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.

dave

[CECAA850]

I've got my generator gassed up and everything from the yard is in the garage. Thanks for all the info. It gets tiring listening to the weather channel try to incite panic. I'd much rather get my info online without the hype. Hang in there Dave.

[Mallette]

Talk about the calm before the storm. Not a breath moving. Barometric at 29.82, down from 29.85. The stillness is extraordinary. I am going to stay up late and sleep late as I really don't expect to get much sleep tomorrow night.

Dave

[LarryC]

Dave, are you watching CNN? This thing is supposed to be aimed right up Galveston Bay, with winds pushing over 20' of water right up toward Houston. Your location looks like it's tailor made for a repeat of the Galveston flood & tsunami that killed over 6,000 people just about 100 years ago. I guess my suggestion is to pack those Fraziers into a vehicle and get the he11 out, and I think you have only overnight tonight to do it.

[Mallette]

Only Gilbert had a lower pressure than the Storm of 1900. We "celebrated" that event on the 9th. This one is closer to a repeat of Carla in 1961, but so far weaker. While as I said "hope floats," I have a hope this one will come ashore at High Island or even further northeast of here. The conditions are right for it to continue to slide that way. It is likely to be a solid 3 coming ashore, and even if it comes as predicted across Freeport I think I'll be alright unless I take a tornado or something. I plan to hole up in a downstairs center of the house bathroom during the peak. Not sure why these things seem to prefer making landfall in the middle of the night. The 1900 storm did the same thing. You should read "Isaac's Storm" if you have not. It is a trully extraordinary account from the eyes of the actual U.S. Weather Bureau agent at the time.

Just finished listening to Virgil Fox doing the Widor Toccata on the Crystal Clear direct disc on my Frazier Elevens at max volume. Not something I can usually do on a weeknight. Gets ones blood pumping for a storm. Guess I need to dig out some Wagner as well.

Mightly lonesome in the neighborhood. Never heard it this silent before.

Dave

PS - No, I am not watching CNN. I am watching our channel 11 with Dr. Frank Field, former head of the National Severe Storms Center and long time local weatherman. He tells it straight. Says I'm gonna die.