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Corona has vanished!

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57 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

we have enough positive tests, and confirmed deaths (which lag by 30 to 90 days) to know that a very, very conservative death rate is 1.5 percent.

You slipped this one in without discussion.  The whole debate involves causation, and this figure presupposes it.  That's not the best test.

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1 hour ago, Jeff Matthews said:

You slipped this one in without discussion.  The whole debate involves causation, and this figure presupposes it.  That's not the best test.

There is no debate on causation among scientists (epidemiologists and ID physicians/researchers). There may be "debate" among policy makers and media pundits and thus in the public's mind depending on their source of information. 

 

There is zero debate in the mind of CDC on what baseline on total deaths means, and what it means to be within it and above it. There isn't any debate at CDC and the other public health/infectious disease research centers like Harvard, Yale, Rice, Baylor, Stanford, Mayo and hundreds of others on how to count deaths where multiple factors are listed.

 

A guy died in car accident who was positive for SARS-CoV-2 and it was counted as a Covid-19 death by that State. When deaths were at 1,000 or below, testing was very limited, and deaths were within baseline, there may have been a "debate" about counting 1 out of a 1,000. Some people can never move forward from that, even in the face of undeniable science research and evidence.  

 

Fortunately, the scientists didn't stop, they keep doing what they do, since the time of Bacon and Descartes, collect more data, gain more experience, test hypotheses, verify the conclusuons of others, etc. using scientific reliable tests and data. 

 

Are there people who will bite from the conspiracy theory trough in a heartbeat, of course there are, it doesn't make it scientific debate. It just means, as also has been established, there is a segment of our society that are predisposed to jumping on the conspiracy gravy train. Media knows this,.as does social media, and they target for that. 

 

The anti-vaxxers are deep into "the debate" and will take every opportunity to get their agenda out there, but they are involved in the science behind epidemiology or ID.

 

Epidemiology can predict, within very narrow margins, what the spread or containment of a particular ID will be based the percentage of people vaccinated or exposure and recovery. They can do this for measles, chicken pox, small pox, HPV, HIV, plague, H1N1, West Nile and thousands of other bugs. 

 

All of this is academic at this point, literally, because the policy has shifted. Texas is perfect example. As first, no statewide orders, it's up to the counties and cities. BAM. Shock and outrage over a hair salon being shut down or ticket or arrest. Then BAM, Memorial day, spike, more Executive orders, masks, fines. BAM Flareup-State wide, 500 doctors, nurses and support personnel brought into Hidalgo County. 

 

The policy is you will practice social distancing in resturants and.public places or wear a mask. You are responsible for your own family, you want to bring a group of 8 to resturant as a family, cool that's on you, but it will stay in that group. You don't want to send your kids to school, no problem.

 

To get to herd immunity with no vaccine a few million will die, some may be obese, or have preexisting health problems, most will be elderly. So you

 

 

 

 

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It's not "I'm from the government and I want to help you" anymore, as the ignorant wish to repeat.  Now it is "I am the government and I'm here to lie to you."

 

The problem still is "you can't fix stupid, but it is even more stupid to try."  Thank you, thank you very much.

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To be clear, patient died from a Covid19 infection, not their obesity.

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1 minute ago, billybob said:

To be clear, patient died from a Covid19 infection, not their obesity.

Friend of yours?

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Just now, oldtimer said:

Friend of yours?

No body I know...

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Chew...choo

Edited by billybob
Too strong...

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2 hours ago, dwilawyer said:

There is no debate on causation among scientists (epidemiologists and ID physicians/researchers). There may be "debate" among policy makers and media pundits and thus in the public's mind depending on their source of information. 

 

There is zero debate in the mind of CDC on what baseline on total deaths means, and what it means to be within it and above it. There isn't any debate at CDC and the other public health/infectious disease research centers like Harvard, Yale, Rice, Baylor, Stanford, Mayo and hundreds of others on how to count deaths where multiple factors are listed.

 

A guy died in car accident who was positive for SARS-CoV-2 and it was counted as a Covid-19 death by that State. When deaths were at 1,000 or below, testing was very limited, and deaths were within baseline, there may have been a "debate" about counting 1 out of a 1,000. Some people can never move forward from that, even in the face of undeniable science research and evidence.  

 

Fortunately, the scientists didn't stop, they keep doing what they do, since the time of Bacon and Descartes, collect more data, gain more experience, test hypotheses, verify the conclusuons of others, etc. using scientific reliable tests and data. 

 

Are there people who will bite from the conspiracy theory trough in a heartbeat, of course there are, it doesn't make it scientific debate. It just means, as also has been established, there is a segment of our society that are predisposed to jumping on the conspiracy gravy train. Media knows this,.as does social media, and they target for that. 

 

The anti-vaxxers are deep into "the debate" and will take every opportunity to get their agenda out there, but they are involved in the science behind epidemiology or ID.

 

Epidemiology can predict, within very narrow margins, what the spread or containment of a particular ID will be based the percentage of people vaccinated or exposure and recovery. They can do this for measles, chicken pox, small pox, HPV, HIV, plague, H1N1, West Nile and thousands of other bugs. 

 

All of this is academic at this point, literally, because the policy has shifted. Texas is perfect example. As first, no statewide orders, it's up to the counties and cities. BAM. Shock and outrage over a hair salon being shut down or ticket or arrest. Then BAM, Memorial day, spike, more Executive orders, masks, fines. BAM Flareup-State wide, 500 doctors, nurses and support personnel brought into Hidalgo County. 

 

The policy is you will practice social distancing in resturants and.public places or wear a mask. You are responsible for your own family, you want to bring a group of 8 to resturant as a family, cool that's on you, but it will stay in that group. You don't want to send your kids to school, no problem.

 

To get to herd immunity with no vaccine a few million will die, some may be obese, or have preexisting health problems, most will be elderly. So you

 

 

 

 

That's all good, and I'm glad there is a consensus.  I was having some doubts until now.

 

Still, I maintain that "cause" is up in the air, except to the extent they load the dice by decree.  I'd like to see how many people died during comparable periods, year over year.

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Why?  It is not enough to know that within the space of half a year a lot of people have died?  What is the obsession with writing off people dying with well, they were going to die anyway?  Yeah, well, "we all got it coming, kid."

 

Wait.  Of course.  You are not dead yet.

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What I meant to say was coursework on the science of science data. With Covid, there is alot of preliminary work to be done to disentangle all the various listed

COD per state information systems, using various softwares and method.

If one takes a grain of salt and use the CDC's accounting, guess you could get a rough ballpark figure, yet, it would not be anywhere near correct, which I suspect will not be acceptable to the data analyst out the gate. Meanwhile more data needed on what has transpired.

Time a determining factor to be able to extrapolate upon with anything to hang a hat upon.

Still, the exercise needs to be done, just for historical record and medical reference. Abit daunting

In my limited opinion.

Thanks!

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8 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Why?  It is not enough to know that within the space of half a year a lot of people have died?  What is the obsession with writing off people dying with well, they were going to die anyway?  Yeah, well, "we all got it coming, kid."

 

Wait.  Of course.  You are not dead yet.

Yes

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9 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Why?  It is not enough to know that within the space of half a year a lot of people have died?  What is the obsession with writing off people dying with well, they were going to die anyway?  Yeah, well, "we all got it coming, kid."

 

Wait.  Of course.  You are not dead yet.

That's not what I am after.  I just want to see a spike in the death rate (from all causes) if Covid is really the big killer they say it is.  No spike = BS.

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1 minute ago, mungkiman said:

 

weekly.thumb.png.f05212c3a1fb8b854db05ac63fa0fea2.png

Good find!  If this data is correct, it doesn't look like much of a blip.

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Just now, Jeff Matthews said:

If this data is correct, it doesn't look like much of a blip.

 

198,000 + people might disagree.

 

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Just now, mungkiman said:

 

198,000 + people might disagree.

 

Even more might disagree that the number is 198,000.  But anyway, lots of people dying all the time.  Death is definitely disappointing.

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Some may say more...

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5 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Good find!  If this data is correct, it doesn't look like much of a blip.

It’s a histogram so to arrive at the total you summate the additional deaths per data bar. Several bars are above 20K.

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I find it amazing that with so much wrong going on, people want to focus on quibbling about statistics.

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