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Corona has vanished!

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28 minutes ago, pbphoto said:

Right, we have 190K deaths with covid, not from covid.  However, right now, excess deaths in the country are above 200K (IIRC)in the last CDC report.  But I want to see how many excess deaths in the US there will be next Spring when we can look back at the 2020 as a whole.  

IMOP you are mathematically delirious.

JJK

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12 hours ago, dwilawyer said:

Possibly driving if intoxicated is only thing I can think of. Long term, risk factors for heart disease would be more deadly. Smoking, hypertension, diet, lack of exercise.

Agree, could be some deadly stuff, especially that DUI.

In the case of that obesity article I posted, even a little weight loss helped survive from Covid.

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1 hour ago, oldtimer said:

In other words, no.

 

He said preparing for 1 million to 2 million Americans to die from the coronavirus is "almost certainly off the chart," adding: "Now it's not impossible, but very, very unlikely."

However, Fauci cautioned people not to put too much emphasis on predictions, noting that "it's such a moving target that you could so easily be wrong and mislead people."

 

March 29, 2020

(hopefully the truth won't kill you)

That's now way low.

 

With 60% having it which is the most conservative minimum, and a death rate of 1.5%, also a very conservative number:

 

3.5 Million dead. 

 

That's the best case scenario with no vaccine. 

 

It it takes 70 or 80% to reach heard immunity, it's about 85,000 additional deaths per percentile point above 60%.

 

When they reached 2% population tested (late July) the death rate was higher. If they opened it up, and let it fly, it would take over a year to reach 60%.

 

Maybe that would be a good thing, instead of media coverage of no masks, it would be bodies stacked like cord wood in refrigerated trailers.

 

We are not wired to comprehend exponential growth, because it's not "natural" growth. Nor are we wired to comprehend a virus with R Zero above 1 that takes weeks 

 

I read a great book on the Spanish Flu. There was a large parade schedule in Philadelphia. By the time of the parade leaders knew how deadly and contagious that disease was, but they told papers that the parade was happening, nothing to fear, go enjoy yourselves, Accounts vary, but this was apparently done to prevent "panic."

 

 

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1 hour ago, pbphoto said:

Right, we have 190K deaths with covid, not from covid.  However, right now, excess deaths in the country are above 200K (IIRC)in the last CDC report.  But I want to see how many excess deaths in the US there will be next Spring when we can look back at the 2020 as a whole.  

Wrong......  approach. The comparison data base would be annualized deaths prior to covid19 compared to deaths with covid19 in the mix. So we need to compare 2020 to 2019 and 2018 or even an average value prior to 2020. And, as you note, excess deaths with covid19 are above 200K and we have several more months to fill out the annualized figures. And 200K deaths attributed to any disease far surpasses any annual fatality rate since the 1918-19 influenza. 

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I just experienced a covid first.  Since it all started the JWs have stayed away, but just now I got a loud knock on the front door (JWs knock lightly) by a little woman from the Amazing Grace Baptist Church, located right here in my town!  I got a small pocket pamphlet instead of the JW style comic book.  It's "Church, like it used to be!"  I didn't have the heart to ask if that meant it was said in Latin...

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Died from Covid is the size of it.

Without the ingredient of Covid into the mix, they would still be whistling past the cemetery, for the most of them, living with their health related problems.

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So if you're down on your luck, and you can't harmonize...

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2 hours ago, pbphoto said:

I'm going to call the guy who predicted 2+ million covid deaths in the US and ask him if I can borrow his.

That's to reach herd immunity without a vaccine, they now know from actual numbers, not models, it would be 3.5 million minimum to reach herd immunity without a vaccine.

 

 

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Just now, dwilawyer said:

That's to reach herd immunity without a vaccine, they now know from actual numbers, not models, it would be 3.5 million minimum to reach herd immunity without a vaccine.

 

 

Don't try to confuse people with facts.  

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15 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

That's to reach herd immunity without a vaccine, they now know from actual numbers, not models, it would be 3.5 million minimum to reach herd immunity without a vaccine.

 

 

I've never seen this data before.  Where did you find it?

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14 minutes ago, Bosco-d-gama said:

Wrong......  approach. The comparison data base would be annualized deaths prior to covid19 compared to deaths with covid19 in the mix. So we need to compare 2020 to 2019 and 2018 or even an average value prior to 2020. And, as you note, excess deaths with covid19 are above 200K and we have several more months to fill out the annualized figures. And 200K deaths attributed to any disease far surpasses any annual fatality rate since the 1918-19 influenza. 

That's right. Excess deaths above baseline (from any and all causes) is one comparison control. It would be a critical number if their wasn't a good test for a fatal disease. Since there is good testing it's a good cross-check and can also pinpoint areas where there is a lack of testing.

 

The baseline is calculated using past 5 year's numbers, and upping those numbers to a level that gives a greater than 95% CI.

 

The other way to do it, is confirmed cases, and confirmed deaths. When we were still under 2% of population with confirmed positive tests, the confirmed deaths were about 170,000 deaths. 

 

It typically takes, for those unable or unwilling to understand counterintuitive medical or scientific principles that something hit closer to home for it to sink in. 

 

Maybe a public event with hundreds of thousands of people, or sending your kids to school, whatever it may be. 

 

Here, hold my beer and watch this . . .

 

 

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The science of data, if not already will become a case study course.

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3 minutes ago, billybob said:

The science of data, if not already will become a case study course.

It is - already......👍

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A bad sci-fi movie usually would ask for volunteers.

A worse sci-fi movie would say, just to let the status quo do it.

No winners either way...

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On 9/8/2020 at 1:20 PM, Woofers and Tweeters said:

This whole state of KY became a mandatory mask wearing everywhere in public or face fines and was order on July 10, 2020.  Everyone, everywhere has been complying. I have used a mask in public since early April, and I still wear one in stores and such. I wanted to give the mandate time and let facts show what is working, or not. Attached is a chart I grabbed a few days ago that shows the slope of the infections. 

 

1487568428_jantosep.png.5f75669f6c09f77be8cdfe2ed4e87cb4.png
 

 

Had the trajectory broken over and flattened out, it would be proof that the masks are working, keep the mandate in place. As it is, the rate increased a week or two after the mandate, and it looks like the masks are causing more infections. I do not believe the masks are causing the increase (If they were trying to prove the opposite, the media would be all over that chart), and I don't believe the numbers, either. 

OK lets look at a common sense analysis here of the mask thing. IF a specific mask was effective and IF the government was seriously worried about this then they would enforce the use of effective masks. Proof that they are more concerned with training people to submit to authority can be seen where ever masks are mandated and worn and none are effective. Look around you next time you are out and see the laughable masks being worn that are as effective as a hurricane fence is to California wildfire smoke. It does not matter if the masks are effective because the government knows they are pretty well useless. What matters is you must obey the edict that has no efficacy. I just loved the one with that movie star that touted her knitted mask that you could make at home and not one health official or news anchor derided her for this utter stupidity. Nursing homes come to mind here too as examples of sincere concern from governing authorities. Quoting of testing results with very poor accuracy as gospel truth is another one. There is a disconnect between stated goals and concerns and the actions being taken. I am also not amused by the quickly rising numbers of "detected" cases which is the inevitable result of more testing being used as reason to further lockdowns when the death rate is plummeting through the floor.

 

 I am from the government and I am here to help you

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44 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

So if you're down on your luck, and you can't harmonize...

You can act as if you were.

Practice bird calls...

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11 minutes ago, pbphoto said:

I've never seen this data before.  Where did you find it?

It's everywhere in the science and medicine news on SARS-CoV-2, it's on the CDC site, but you have to do the math, it's from the mouths of every epidemiologist who has testified on the subject before Congress.

 

You can check the numbers easily by State or nationally. Be careful if you do it by media source, we all have built in amount of confirmatory bias. This causes everyone to subconsciously or even consciously pick and chose accounts that support a preconceived conclusion. It typically requires going to the underlying journal articles.

 

We are now at the point where we have enough positive tests, and confirmed deaths (which lag by 30 to 90 days) to know that a very, very conservative death rate is 1.5 percent. Epidemiologists have put herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2 at somewhere between 60 and 80 percent (there are numerous medical articles on that). 

 

The only variable is what the percentage needs to be to reach heard immunity, I just use the minimum of 60% because 3.5 million is way, way too much for people to stomach. 

 

Something that I'm looking at now is how long it would take for US to reach 60% without a vaccine. This is a much more difficult question, so far I'm seeing it would not happen in 2021. 

 

Containment by reasonable measures, with the exception of a few States, is pretty much the policy in order to slow spread, get under 4% positivity rate, until a vaccine comes along is the policy. The fundamentals behind the disease have never changed, just the amount of data. 

 

 

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33 minutes ago, billybob said:

The science of data, if not already will become a case study course.

It's called Statistics, and stastical case study courses are required for nearly all post-graduate science (hard or soft) programs. 

 

It's essential to even be able to write a dissertation or thesis.

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1 minute ago, dwilawyer said:

It's everywhere in the science and medicine news on SARS-CoV-2, it's on the CDC site, but you have to do the math, it's from the mouths of every epidemiologist who has testified on the subject before Congress.

 

You can check the numbers easily by State or nationally. Be careful if you do it by media source, we all have built in amount of confirmatory bias. This causes everyone to subconsciously or even consciously pick and chose accounts that support a preconceived conclusion. It typically requires going to the underlying journal articles.

 

We are now at the point where we have enough positive tests, and confirmed deaths (which lag by 30 to 90 days) to know that a very, very conservative death rate is 1.5 percent. Epidemiologists have put herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2 at somewhere between 60 and 80 percent (there are numerous medical articles on that). 

 

The only variable is what the percentage needs to be to reach heard immunity, I just use the minimum of 60% because 3.5 million is way, way too much for people to stomach. 

 

Something that I'm looking at now is how long it would take for US to reach 60% without a vaccine. This is a much more difficult question, so far I'm seeing it would not happen in 2021. 

 

Containment by reasonable measures, with the exception of a few States, is pretty much the policy in order to slow spread, get under 4% positivity rate, until a vaccine comes along is the policy. The fundamentals behind the disease have never changed, just the amount of data. 

 

 

But are you assuming that confirmed positive tests equals the percentage of the population that has immunity?  Or that the death rate is the same across the entire population?

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1 minute ago, dwilawyer said:

It's called Statistics, and case stastical case study courses are required for nearly all post-graduate science (hard or soft) programs. 

 

It's essential to even be able to write a dissertation or thesis.

Sounds reasonable to me. Without good data, it may as well be a crossword puzzle. A statistical survey... Dr Charles Lininger WPC.

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