Jump to content
The Klipsch Audio Community
geoff.

Corona has vanished!

Recommended Posts

On 9/10/2020 at 9:57 AM, billybob said:

Not that I can imagine...

Possibly driving if intoxicated is only thing I can think of. Long term, risk factors for heart disease would be more deadly. Smoking, hypertension, diet, lack of exercise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, dtel said:

Just call it a peaceful protest, seems to be no problem with those ?

 

Just open it all back up, we have people to spare, loose a few here and there.

Absolutley, it's called hard immunity. How many people have to die in order for heard immunity (which requires between 60 and 75 percent of US population to either contract SARS-COV-2 or be vaccinated depending on who you talk to). So no vaccine currently, and assuming the conservative 60 percent how many people will die in US to reach heard immunity? 

 

This number is well known among epidemiologists,  it doesn't vary by much, it accounts for age distribution, what treatments are available in US and everything else.

 

What's the number? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, mungkiman said:

One person's choice for abstinence or "safe" sex usually doesn't lead to the potential for sickness or death of the person next to them at the topless bar, unless they go home together.

 

But if they do wear masks in the bar, go home, and don't practice a known preventative measure, a prophylaxis, we know what the rate will be. We know, within scientific probability, what the rate will be without social distancing, or not wearing masks. 

 

So, if someone is a risk avoider, do they a. go to bar but don't go home with dancer (entertainer),

b. go home with entertainer, but wear mask

c. go home with entertainer and wear nothing, or

d. Stay at home at listen to Klipsch?

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

But if they do wear masks in the bar, go home, and don't practice a known preventative measure, a prophylaxis, we know what the rate will be. We know, within scientific probability, what the rate will be without social distancing, or not wearing masks. 

 

Agreed. Why do you think so many people play 'follow the leader' with regards to not wearing masks?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree if you do more testing, you find more cases, and the reverse is also true.  We're still doing a large amount of testing that looks like it has tailed off recently, but cases have been declining since mid-July faster than the rate of testing, so I'm optimistic.  The hospitalization rate has been declining since mid-July as well.  Deaths have been down since early-mid August but still too high for me, and unfortunately, it looks like +75% are still targeted at folks over 65 years old with other complicating factors in the mix.

 

The data indicates we are finding cases in the healthy population as they return to school and work.  They may or may not even have known they had it, and if they get sick, they are able to fight it off and not end up in the hospital.  A positive test result doesn't mean you are sick.  Case positivity rate today has very different ramifications than it did in April and May, when we were largely testing the vulnerable population who showed symptoms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, pbphoto said:

But the dancer said she wanted to go out with me.

Bet she said you were handsome too. Lie to me sweetheart. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My doctor told me a few months ago that it is not much use getting tested if you are feeling OK. He did not put much emphasis on the accuracy of the test. That and you could test good today and catch it tomorrow. I know one that tested positive and never had any symptoms and he was over 65. If you have symptoms of covid and you have a fever run to the emergency room.  Stay safe everyone. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, pbphoto said:

I agree if you do more testing, you find more cases, and the reverse is also true.  We're still doing a large amount of testing that looks like it has tailed off recently, but cases have been declining since mid-July faster than the rate of testing, so I'm optimistic.  The hospitalization rate has been declining since mid-July as well.  Deaths have been down since early-mid August but still too high for me, and unfortunately, it looks like +75% are still targeted at folks over 65 years old with other complicating factors in the mix.

 

The data indicates we are finding cases in the healthy population as they return to school and work.  They may or may not even have known they had it, and if they get sick, they are able to fight it off and not end up in the hospital.  A positive test result doesn't mean you are sick.  Case positivity rate today has very different ramifications than it did in April and May, when we were largely testing the vulnerable population who showed symptoms.

Whenever you consider covid19 think about short and longer term effects of the infection. In the short term covid19 impacts people differently. It is fatal at a much higher rate than any contagion in the last century killing the vulnerable populations. In the longer term covid19 is an unknown. What has been evidenced is organ damage in the survivors. Age does not matter. Heart damage is seen amongst all age groups and all body types. The vulnerable are not alone. Covid19 touches its victims in many ways.
 

Fast forward 30 years from now. Covid19 and most infectious diseases may well be entirely preventable by then. But for the extant populations of covid19 survivors there could be an epidemic of organ system failures. Diabetes, renal diseases, strokes and heart diseases......   all the long term consequences of the covid19 pandemic 30 years earlier. We saw this with polio and other ailments. Covid19 damages the body in some very serious ways and as humans age that damage will limit organ survivorship.

 

And we still do not know everything about covid19. It may go dormant inside the body and resurface in some manifestation. Only time and a lot of diligence will tell. Covid19 is a great concern. Every community should collectively be focused on doing everything possible to keep covid19 from spreading. It is not hard and only makes good sense. It is merely a higher degree of germ awareness and cleanliness and avoidance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Bosco-d-gama said:

Whenever you consider covid19 think about short and longer term effects of the infection. In the short term covid19 impacts people differently. It is fatal at a much higher rate than any contagion in the last century killing the vulnerable populations. In the longer term covid19 is an unknown. What has been evidenced is organ damage in the survivors. Age does not matter. Heart damage is seen amongst all age groups and all body types. The vulnerable are not alone. Covid19 touches its victims in many ways.
 

Fast forward 30 years from now. Covid19 and most infectious diseases may well be entirely preventable by then. But for the extant populations of covid19 survivors there could be an epidemic of organ system failures. Diabetes, renal diseases, strokes and heart diseases......   all the long term consequences of the covid19 pandemic 30 years earlier. We saw this with polio and other ailments. Covid19 damages the body in some very serious ways and as humans age that damage will limit organ survivorship.

 

And we still do not know everything about covid19. It may go dormant inside the body and resurface in some manifestation. Only time and a lot of diligence will tell. Covid19 is a great concern. Every community should collectively be focused on doing everything possible to keep covid19 from spreading. It is not hard and only makes good sense. It is merely a higher degree of germ awareness and cleanliness and avoidance.

We'll have to see how the excess deaths in this country end up over the next 6 months or so.  I do agree that it is fatal in the vulnerable population at a much too high of a rate.  As far as being the deadliest in the last century, I'm not so sure.  For the healthy working population, you are right, we don't know the long term effects.  Unfortunately, we do know the short term effects of keeping the healthy population locked down all too well, and I predict this will end up being much deadlier than the disease itself.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, pbphoto said:

I predict this will end up being much deadlier than the disease itself.

Using your magic 8 ball for that?  Care to put a number on the prognostication?

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, oldtimer said:

Using your magic 8 ball for that?  Care to put a number on the prognostication?

I'm going to call the guy who predicted 2+ million covid deaths in the US and ask him if I can borrow his.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In other words, no.

 

He said preparing for 1 million to 2 million Americans to die from the coronavirus is "almost certainly off the chart," adding: "Now it's not impossible, but very, very unlikely."

However, Fauci cautioned people not to put too much emphasis on predictions, noting that "it's such a moving target that you could so easily be wrong and mislead people."

 

March 29, 2020

(hopefully the truth won't kill you)

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, pbphoto said:

We'll have to see how the excess deaths in this country end up over the next 6 months or so.  I do agree that it is fatal in the vulnerable population at a much too high of a rate.  As far as being the deadliest in the last century, I'm not so sure.  For the healthy working population, you are right, we don't know the long term effects.  Unfortunately, we do know the short term effects of keeping the healthy population locked down all too well, and I predict this will end up being much deadlier than the disease itself.

You have to go back to the 1918-19 influenza to find a disease this lethal. Covid19 is worse than either polio or tuberculosis. There’s good reason the entire planet is very preoccupied with covid19.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Bosco-d-gama said:

You have to go back to the 1918-19 influenza to find a disease this lethal. Covid19 is worse than either polio or tuberculosis. There’s good reason the entire planet is very preoccupied with covid19.

Again, I'm not convinced - I'm not saying I don't believe you, but I need to more time for the data to come in.  And yes, there is a very good reason the entire planet is preoccupied with covi19, but I suspect we will not agree on what it is either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Fauci cautioned people not to put too much emphasis on predictions, noting that "it's such a moving target that you could so easily be wrong and mislead people."

Does this apply exclusively to Fauci?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Does this apply exclusively to Fauci?

Rhetorical, aren't you?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, pbphoto said:

Again, I'm not convinced - I'm not saying I don't believe you, but I need to more time for the data to come in.  And yes, there is a very good reason the entire planet is preoccupied with covi19, but I suspect we will not agree on what it is either.

Ummmmmm.......   what data are you awaiting? Already the actual covid19 body count has far surpassed the pace of any disease event during this time frame. Do you doubt that there are actual bodies in that data?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Bosco-d-gama said:

Ummmmmm.......   what data are you awaiting? Already the actual covid19 body count has far surpassed the pace of any disease event during this time frame. Do you doubt that there are actual bodies in that data?

The big dispute seems to surround causation.  Do we know how many TOTAL deaths from all causes there were during the same period in other years?  I stopped looking at all this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

The big dispute seems to surround causation.  Do we know how many TOTAL deaths from all causes there were during the same period in other years?  I stopped looking at all this.

Right, we have 190K deaths with covid, not from covid.  However, right now, excess deaths in the country are above 200K (IIRC)in the last CDC report.  But I want to see how many excess deaths in the US there will be next Spring when we can look back at the 2020 as a whole.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...