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Corona has vanished!

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1 hour ago, Jeff Matthews said:

As I said, I'm not making light of deaths, but they do happen.  The question is:  Was this enough to justify tanking the world economy and shuttering untold numbers of businesses?  A lot of irreparable harm has been done.

Your question is retrospective. At the time the isolation policies were enacted we did not fully understand covid19 yet. It may have been overkill but who was to know at that time? Covid19 had ravaged Italy and the only measures that seemed to work for certain were those established by China for their population. China shut down the areas involved. That was the benchmark then, so that’s what we did - then.

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17 hours ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Even more might disagree that the number is 198,000.  But anyway, lots of people dying all the time.  Death is definitely disappointing.

 

Let's say it is 180,000, which is ultra, ultra conservative. 

 

There will still be a segment who will say "there is a conspiracy and you * can't trust the number, so forget it, let er rip and open up." There are still some who believe it's a hoax, part of some grand conspiracy designed to make someone rich and/or part of a grand scheme to take away liberty.

 

Here are excess deaths, but you have to read the notes, every one, in order to determine for ourselves, what we consider to be reliable or not, and reliable in the context of how people are using the numbers. Are they qualified people who are trying to contain a disease, reduce spread, reduce deaths, develop treatments in the absence of a vaccine (by looking at comorbidity factors), or are they using numbers to show that measures worked, didn't work, that there was delay, wasn't delay, that it's over blown, under blown.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

 

Prior to SARS-CoV-2, CDC reported flu hospitalizations and deaths on the high side of reasonable, some epidemiology experts and ID experts say the numbers were 20% above a 95% CI, maybe an 80% confidence level. The CI was in the fine print, and someone knowledgeable would know this, put as part of public policy to encourage flu vaccination, they used a lower CI. This is unfortunate because people may assume same is happening with SARS-CoV-2. 

Edited by dwilawyer
Correct can vs. Can't

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Did you mean to say ' can trust'?

Thanks

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15 hours ago, oldtimer said:

Nope.  You are implying that our choice on that particular issue has to do with one election machine on one side and the other election machine on the other.  Somehow I don't think so.  You have also been on record that foreign interference in our elections doesn't matter.  Somehow I don't think that either.

So that's how it started. Let's say it was a masterminded plot by China to determine an election outcome or tank economy. 

 

So what? It's real, it's deadly, and it's here. We can invade and/or nuke China when there's a vaccine right?

 

There is a preliminary Harvard study that looks at Covid-19 in 18 to 24 age group that's not too terribly resassuring if you are obese or diabetic. 

 

Any of you have college age kids? Are they overweight, diabetic,.heart murmer, asthma? 

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13 minutes ago, billybob said:

Did you mean to say ' can trust'?

Thanks

No, *can't, thanks

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42 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

There will still be a segment who will say "there is a conspiracy and you * can't trust the number, so forget it, let er rip and open up." There are still some who believe it's a hoax, part of some grand conspiracy designed to make someone rich and/or part of a grand scheme to take away liberty.

You are technically correct, but you are not describing the context fairly.  If everyone could choose to sit at home and not be dependent upon income/revenues to earn a living, then your point would carry a lot more weight.  However, it is right to question everything when they use this vehicle to choose who stays in business and who goes broke... by the tens of millions of people.

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On 9/9/2020 at 12:45 PM, billybob said:

That is one of the best articles I have read, from the most prestigious scientific journal in the United States (probably the world).

 

What's every one's BMI? They can do it, roughly from height and weight, but when my sister did mine in college, I had to get in a tank of water, they took measurements with special calipers on arms, stomach, legs, etc., to come up with the most precise measurement of BMI and body fat. That's obviously going to have zero bearing on where things are now.

 

How close is just using height and weight to an accurate BMI measurement? +/- 5%?

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48 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

How close is just using height and weight to an accurate BMI measurement? +/- 5%?

Those are important but not definitive in my view. Given a lack of a BMI, those statistics may well 

be used as a ballpark barring a dedicated test. Accuracy as percent unknown.

The takeaway for some optimistic,

when even losing a little a positive.

Eating more healthy possibly a direct desired result, to weight loss.

Thanks!

 

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On 9/10/2020 at 10:24 AM, Dave A said:

Correct. High blood pressure, obesity, smoking, and Diabetes and you know the vast majority of this is self inflicted due to life choices because people lack discipline. The leading comorbidities that kill off wuhan virus patients.

They don't know, yet, what comorbidities "kill off" Covid-19 patients, only that they were present at time of death. The average number of comorbidities is 2.  40% of adults in the US are obese, (BMI 30 or above) they say our diet (not quality of care) it what puts us about 50th in life expectancy overall (Hong Kong, Japan, other parts of East Asia and southern Europe like Spain and Italy are consistently in the top ten). So that's deaths.

 

So for hospitalzations (not deaths) hypertension in about 50% of patients hospitalized and positive for Sars-Covid-2, same for obesity, chronic lung disease about one-third, diabetes 30% and 30% for cardiovascular disease. (Smoking, or long history of same is probably heavly associated with chronic lung disease and cardiovascular disease). That information goes straight to CDC by hospitals because it is a "reportable disease."

 

Hospitalizations, when they use "comorbidity" are talking about preexisting conditions a person had before Covid-19. 

 

So back to DEATHS as a result of COVID-19.

 

Here is why this thing is so complex, and the lay public is typically way outside it's element when it tries to take CDC numbers and reach his/her own conclusions. The CDC numbers on deaths come from death certificates submitted by the states, They Code in the cause of death due to Covid-19 (U07.1) and they can also list other factors that contributed to the death. These don't necessaryily have to be preexisting conditions.

 

Vascular dementia is listed as a comorbid factor in 22% of deaths in the 85+ group, and 0% in the 0 to 24 age group. That makes perfect sense.

 

Obesity is a comorbidity factor is 22% of the deaths in the 0 - 24 group, and 0 percent in the 85+ group, no idea why that would be. 

 

Age is it's own independent factor on the chances of dying if you get Sars-CoV-19 and appears to be consistent everywhere. Individual identified comorbid conditions, going back to April in US, which is updated weekly. Some of the comorbidities listed seem to be concurrent, or as a result of Covid-19. not preexisting. Like pneumonia, cardiac arrest and respiratory failure.

 

image.thumb.png.6e5aa91e54bb7d33eb5669dea524c617.png

SOURCE: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Conditions-contributing-to-deaths-involving-corona/hk9y-quqm

 

 

In the group 0 to 30, 16% have preexisting Comorbid conditions relating to Covid-19 deaths. 

30 to 40 I think is about 1/4 have preexisting comorbidities

40s 40%

50s about 60%

60s about 75%

70 and above it's 85%

 

A sudden change of diet, 

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8 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

 

Obesity is a comorbidity factor is 22% of the deaths in the 0 - 24 group, and 0 percent in the 85+ group, no idea why that would be. 

Age 85 and over the percentage of the population with obesity is much smaller than the other age groups.

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33 minutes ago, Skelt said:

Age 85 and over the percentage of the population with obesity is much smaller than the other age groups.

I’d wager that most of the obese folks die before reaching 85 years of age.🤔😔

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1 hour ago, dwilawyer said:

A sudden change of diet,

There is enough collected data out there to identify factors that put you at high risk. I think diet and excercise and getting away from chairs and computers is the best cheapest life style alteration one can do for many things. I would add to that this consideration while we are here. Talking to a forum member some time back who was excited about his first child on the way. He was worried however about birth defects. He mentioned that a pretty large group of his peers had children with these and so it was a concern. I have been leery of how much chemical preprocessed lazy mans cooking we put into our bodies and what exactly are we doing to ourselves. Even the drinking water most get right from their municipal water source and drink as is. The thought came to me that this age group he was in is the one that eats more prepared food from a box of any of them and there is a price to pay for diet choices.

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55 minutes ago, Bosco-d-gama said:

I’d wager that most of the obese folks die before reaching 85 years of age.🤔😔

 

question   Bosco   the Covid 19   Virus  does not die  outdoors in freezing weather conditions , would you think that  Northern States will see a rise in the infections this winter and fall

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On 9/12/2020 at 7:36 PM, RandyH000 said:

well , let's take a small step backwards to today's date 09-12-2020 /  the USA Deaths are only 198124   - that's 1, 876  less than 200k   and Canada 9170 - Godspeed -

That quote was from March 29th. There were about 125,000 cases (with very, very limited testing) and just over 2,000 deaths back then. 

 

He also said it wasn't impossible to hit 1 to 2 million, but they he was using "middle of the road" models and projections. He also said to be careful about predictions because they are a "moving target."

 

My favorite quote from back on that day, in reference to when the Country could open back up again is: "The virus itself determines that timetable." I think that has turned out to be 100% correct. You can hope, pray, try new treatments to improves odds, try to get people to see wearing a mask is good common sense and not a deprivation of personal freedom, none of it matters to the virus. 

 

So have we gone through the first wave? Flu season is right around the corner, spreads the same way, will it be the cause of a second wave?

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2 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

 

 

So have we gone through the first wave? Flu season is right around the corner, spreads the same way, will it be the cause of a second wave?

the 2nd wave has already  started  in Northern  NY -VT- and in most of Canada ,  the infection rates are  on the rise which also coincides with the colder weather

 

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Think Fauci will be issuing his second wave message before

long. 

Edit: good morning...

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12 hours ago, RandyH000 said:

 

question   Bosco   the Covid 19   Virus  does not die  outdoors in freezing weather conditions , would you think that  Northern States will see a rise in the infections this winter and fall

I’d say that the spread/perpetuation/proliferation of covid19 is more behavioral than environmental. It’s unfortunate that covid19 seems impervious to environmental extremes. More unfortunate is that we can’t fix stupid. Winter will see clusters of stupids gathering indoors. If we do have a vaccine available the stupids won’t accept it. We have stupids in leadership roles everywhere and at many levels. Apparently stupids cannot read or think and are stupidly selfish, thinking only of their stupid selves. Stupids are everywhere and more are born daily. Covid19 thrives on stupidity and that’s my answer. 😞😠😳

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Back when used to do aerobics, 

Dr Cooper had a story about an obese young lady who would walk by a football practice field daily at the same time. Within a couple of months the boys started cheering her on, noticing her weight loss from her dogged persistance in walking. As she got faster and slimmer, the guys would walk over to the fence to talk with her. Then, walking with her...

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7 minutes ago, Bosco-d-gama said:

I’d say that the spread/perpetuation/proliferation of covid19 is more behavioral than environmental. It’s unfortunate that covid19 seems impervious to environmental extremes. More unfortunate is that we can’t fix stupid. Winter will see clusters of stupids gathering indoors. If we do have a vaccine available the stupids won’t accept it. We have stupids in leadership roles everywhere and at many levels. Apparently stupids cannot read or think and are stupidly selfish, thinking only of their stupid selves. Stupids are everywhere and more are born daily. Covid19 thrives on stupidity and that’s my answer. 😞😠😳

Cast those stones...

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1 minute ago, billybob said:

Back when used to do aerobics, 

Dr Cooper had a story about an obese young lady who would walk by a football practice field daily at the same time. Within a couple of months the boys started cheering her on, noticing her weight loss from her dogged persistance in walking. As she got faster and slimmer, the guys would walk over to the fence to talk with her. Then, walking with her...

Fat lives matter!

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