Jay481985 Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Godspeed everyone who is in the path, my prayers are with you and I wish you the best. Looks like it will be a Cat 5 soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmusic Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Well Christy, I just don't know where to begin with this one, I have taken my k-horns apart and put them up high along with my amp and some other stuff that I can not replace. I was going to my brothers in Jackson, but now my father wants to stay!!!! I am not sure if I can leave him or not he is 70 years old and hard headed. I am sending my wife and mother to my brothers probably ahead of me if I go, I want to wait until the storm enters the gulf and passes through the loop current. After that the track will be much more accurate, although I am already not likeing what I am seeing. Good luck to you and yours, hope to talk to ya after the storm. Jay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 30, 2008 Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2008 Jay, I will say a prayer for you and your dad. Prayers work miracles and I am sure he will see the only prudent thing to do is leave. Please post as soon as this passes and let us all know you are okay and we will do the same. It's so hard to leave everything behind not knowing what is going to happen, although I believe you are in a much worse predicament than we are. Christy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmusic Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Christy, You are right I would rather be just about anywhere other than here right now, as for my father he isn't going anywhere I know this. Very stubborn man!!! If I leave my mother says she is staying with my father, so better for me to stay than her. When I am able after it is all over I will post as soon as I can. Jay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLSamuel Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Good luck to all in the path of the storm. Our thoughts and prayers for all in Gustav's path. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colterphoto1 Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 8 pm EST just got off the phone with Christy- the Dtel clan is en route to higher ground. Godspeed Dtels, and prayers going out to everyone in the area, esp Jay in N.O. and Johnny at the Dtel ranch. Y'all be safe! Michael Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iwillwalk Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 its going to flood everywhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colterphoto1 Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 I"m keeping tabs on the map through NOAA and giving Dtels phone updates. I have the emergency OnStar phone number for Jamie's Saturn just in case. Reports were that traffic was horrible first hour out of Picayune, they're hitting 45 mph in 70 zones right now. Plan on driving through the night until they see dry mountains. It's going to be a mess tomorrow as the rain continues and the mandatory N.O. evacuation proceeds. M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrWho Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Man, I'm supposed to be flying into New Orleans on Thursday for a seminar...I wonder if the plane will even leave??? Gonna have to keep tabs on this thread, since I really know nothing about hurricanes (being from the midwest and all that). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colterphoto1 Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 You're not going anywhere Doc. The New Orleans Saints football team just landed in Indianapolis a few minutes ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colterphoto1 Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Another interesting site: http://www.stormpulse.com/tropical-storm-gustav-2008 It gives you a colour image and shows where the hurricane is and where it is going. They also have an archives section where you can see the path of any hurricane, which is an interesting option. Sometimes I do forget where a certain hurricane went through. Jamie says to follow the PINK line that's the GFDL forecast they live by. It's headed on a course to New Iberia so depending on the width of the storm, this is potentially good news for dtels. About 2/3 of the computer models are moving west of N.O. as of 11 pm but this storm is a wide, nasty one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 Just remember that anything right of the main path is the worst area. The hurricane spins counterclockwise which mean it picks up water from the Gulf of Mexico and then proceeds to hit land. As it hits the northwest quadrant, over land it loses momentum. The long and short of this, when Katrina hit, which areas took the worst hit? East of where the hurricane hit. Gustov is scheduled to hit west of New Orleans. Those levees can withstand a Cat 4 tidal surge? Hopefully. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boom3 Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 We are getting our guestroom ready for refugees now. The levees are a work in progress...but a direct hit of a Cat 4 is probably going to breach them in a few spots. Remember it was water, not wind, that did the most damage in Katrina, and that Rita, right after Katrina, dumped a lot of water that could not drain away quickly. A stalling storm is more dangerous to the N.O. area than one that passes quickly through. Some of my friends in the N.O area are staying...those that live on the highest ground (Quarter and Fauborg Marigny). One set rode out Katrina in the Quarter and has no intention of fleeing...safer and more comfortable where they are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 It looks like the projected path took a slight Eastward path overnight. Good news for some, bad for others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormin Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 Remember it was water, not wind, that did the most damage in Katrina, and that Rita, right after Katrina, dumped a lot of water that could not drain away quickly. A stalling storm is more dangerous to the N.O. area than one that passes quickly through. Some of my friends in the N.O area are staying...those that live on the highest ground (Quarter and Fauborg Marigny). One set rode out Katrina in the Quarter and has no intention of fleeing...safer and more comfortable where they are. But if this storm becomes a Cat 4 or 5 and hits just to the west of NO wouldn't this be a much worse scenario for NO? I thought just to the east of the hurricane is where the most damage occurs, be it storm surge, high winds and rain. Katrina was only a cat 3 when she hit and it was to the east of NO. I am just thinking those who think "well I survived Katrina so this isnt going to be as bad" might be taking quite a risk and may be in for a big surprise. Don't take that risk if you have children at home or older folks please because if things go wrong they will be the ones less likely to survive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJkizak Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 Although I live in a relatively calm area I just got to wondering if there is a way to construct a home that will hold up to a cat 5 huricane? I have also heard that the insurance companies have $30,000.00 deductables in those areas affected? JJK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 Stormin, you are right, the new track is about 90 miles east of yesterday's predictions. Not good news for New Orleans in regards to flooding. Also remember Katrina kicked east just before landing, something the governor of Mississippi was reminding his populace of this morning. The good news is many have decided to get out of Dodge. They got the people who couldn't get out, to the train station and loaded a bunch up onto trains to Memphis. The bad news, the bar code system didn't work, so they couldn't track the people who left. This would help with benefits and reducing fraud. The computer system crawled to a stop and had to be abandoned. A good idea, I guess they will have a faster network set up next time. On CNN they were saying that the west side of the levee repair is not completed. Hopefully Gustov is a fast moving storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boom3 Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 Remember it was water, not wind, that did the most damage in Katrina, and that Rita, right after Katrina, dumped a lot of water that could not drain away quickly. A stalling storm is more dangerous to the N.O. area than one that passes quickly through. Some of my friends in the N.O area are staying...those that live on the highest ground (Quarter and Fauborg Marigny). One set rode out Katrina in the Quarter and has no intention of fleeing...safer and more comfortable where they are. But if this storm becomes a Cat 4 or 5 and hits just to the west of NO wouldn't this be a much worse scenario for NO? I thought just to the east of the hurricane is where the most damage occurs, be it storm surge, high winds and rain. Katrina was only a cat 3 when she hit and it was to the east of NO. I am just thinking those who think "well I survived Katrina so this isnt going to be as bad" might be taking quite a risk and may be in for a big surprise. Don't take that risk if you have children at home or older folks please because if things go wrong they will be the ones less likely to survive. It is generically true that the northeast corner is the worst, however, the Katrina damage was exacerbated by the lake and MRGO canal flooding on the east side. The worst case (before K) was that a storm would track northeast and push the lake on top of the city...which happened to a degree in K. The MRGO canal and the London and 17th streets canal breaches contributed most of the damage.I am hoping that with the landfall to the west, these effecst will be minimal this time. I do hope people will leave, but I also have talked to a number of people who stayed on high ground during K and were just fine, apart from loss of utilities. As far as the trains go, a friend of mine from Ft. Worth took Amtrak into N.O. Thursday. Yesterday he went to the station to go home. He was told his ticket was now worthless because he is not a La. resident and not eligible to ride the train out. Hopefully there will be suits over this. One of many dumb ideas in this whole set-up. My main concern for my friends who are staying is that everyone has armed to the teeth. If looting happens again, expect a number of casualties. I am very pro-2nd ammendment, BTW, so this is not an anti-gun comment. But the criminal element in NO has been well-armed for a long time and the cops and National Guard are hopefully equipped to match them. Also, I hope the gun stores are well-secured. There were dozens, if not hundreds, of weapons taken post-K that have never been found. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boom3 Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 Although I live in a relatively calm area I just got to wondering if there is a way to construct a home that will hold up to a cat 5 huricane? I have also heard that the insurance companies have $30,000.00 deductables in those areas affected? JJK Yes, there is...some folks in FL have built concrete domes and homes with curved sections that are alleged to be CAT 5 proof.The standard deductible is 5% of the loss, so the figure may be more or less than $30K. Even before the housing crisis, insurance was killing the real estate market here. The only solution is to go to a national risk pool, in other words, nationalized property insurance. However, getting national health care is somehow too hard for the U.S.so national property insurance is probably a non-starter, as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 31, 2008 Author Share Posted August 31, 2008 Well, we're starting to the outlying Gustav inflow bands as far east as Okeechobee. Overcast, heavy banding curves visible, sporadic but very heavy bursts. Here's the latest from the NHC as of a few minutes ago: WTNT42 KNHC 311457 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008 GUSTAV CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY ASYMMETRIC... WITH THE COLD TOPS DUE MAINLY TO ONE HOT TOWER IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL. WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS APPARENT...IT IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED CENTER. THE LATEST REPORT FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 962 MB...ALONG WITH AN ELLIPTICAL 30 BY 20 N MI WIDE EYE OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK... WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW GUIDANCE RUNS SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SHIFT YET... AND THUS LIES NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER 48-72 HR... THERE IS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES...STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. SINCE THIS KIND OF SPREAD FREQUENTLY PRECEDES SLOW MOTION... THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN 15 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.... AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL LANDFALL. THAT... COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT RAGGED STORM STRUCTURE AND THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... SUGGESTS ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW. ADDITIONALLY..GUSTAV IS OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT NOW...AND SHOULD PASS OVER WATERS WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL. THE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS BY FORECASTING MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HR...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KT AND THE OTHER MODELS ABOUT 110 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR GUSTAV TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 115 KT IN 12 TO 24 HR...AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. GUSTAV SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1500Z 25.3N 86.0W 105 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 27.0N 87.7W 115 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.7W 115 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 30.0N 91.5W 85 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.0W 50 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 03/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 05/1200Z 32.0N 95.9W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW $$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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