Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?

[Emile]

12 minutes ago, geoff. said:

waiting to pounce on the bargains at the bottom

Yes; let me know when it is at the bottom  

[Greg_M]

23 minutes ago, Emile said:

Yes; let me know when it is at the bottom  

You will not know until it starts back up.

Same as mortgage rates.

[Coytee]

On 3/10/2020 at 4:16 PM, JJkizak said:

I see everyone ignored my question of how do you handle the "washes" with the IRS?

JJK

 

To try to get a more complete answer, I did some copy/pasting...

 

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Wash Sale Basics

A loss on sale is disallowed for federal income tax purposes if, within the 61-day period beginning 30 days before the date of the loss sale and ending 30 days after that date, you buy substantially identical securities

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[geoff.]

Wait for leg 3

 

”the puke out”

 

My line of credit will not sit idle for this one like it did for TVIX!

[Jeff Matthews]

Icahn:  Some good companies are really cheap right now.

 

 

[oldtimer]

How many people have lost their jobs because Icahn took over their companies?  It's easily over a hundred thousand.

[Travis In Austin]

7 hours ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

 

Hi Greg,

 

Other than a brief rally, I don't think so at all !!   IMHO, yes, absolutely - there can be a rally off of this oversold condition, but it will MOST likely fail and go much lower IMHO. It did this in 1929.  Why suggest this ?  The market had really LOW volume on Thursday, and there has been no REAL capitulation of stocks yet, a total high trading volume PUKE IT OUT stage, which occurs at Bear market bottoms in history.  

 

WE are only a portion of the way down. LOOK at the charts posted yesterday, to get an idea.  In a Bear market, the best strategy is not to buy the dips, but to to SELL into Rallies, until a bottom occurs.  Its just the opposite of buying every dip in a Bull market.  Got it ???

 

When you ( and most others ) personally are too scared to buy, THAT will possibly be the " excellent time to buy " that you envision today.  

 

1929 - stocks lost 84 or 86% top-to-bottom  ( I posted the correct number earlier, no time to look it up now ) .  There is nothing to stop this decline from losing 95% of stock prices, top-to-bottom.  We were in 2020 50% more extended on the upside VS 1929, as I showed all in that 1-27 thread up here.  This created WONDERFUL opportunities on the downside.  And eventually, possibly the very best stock-buying opportunity ever of our life times !!

 

Jeff 

You can't compare today's market with the '29 US Stock Market for two fundamental reasons.

[Jeff Matthews]

1 hour ago, oldtimer said:

How many people have lost their jobs because Icahn took over their companies?  It's easily over a hundred thousand.

I'm not hiring, either.

[JJkizak]

As I mentioned before in 1929 200 institutions (banks/insurance companies) controlled all of the money and were sitting on it.  A lot of new rules were incorporated into the Stock Market trading procedures  to prevent total collapse. Today with FDIC, Medicare, Social Security, Medicad the money keeps flowing with Market circuit breakers, variable margin calls, etc. So it would be theoretically harder for total failure. There is a very nice old PBS documentary on this floating around somewhere.

JJK

 

[billybob]

History tends to repeat itself. Any lessons learned are not always exercised. Safeguards put into

place since the last great fall are there to slow or eliminate complete capitulation for instances of panic in the broad market. It remains to be seen as to

how effective they are. They are being tested as we speak. Generally speaking, they appear to be working...imo

[oldtimer]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/heres-what-could-really-sink-the-global-economy-dollar19-trillion-in-risky-corporate-debt/ar-BB11aZZA?ocid=spartanntp

 

 

[oldtimer]

Given events over the weekend, the puke out is nigh.

[Jeff Matthews]

6 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Given events over the weekend, the puke out is nigh.

Which events?  You mean CV wrecking the economy?

[oldtimer]

3 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Which events?  You mean CV wrecking the economy?

In general, negative news.  More travel bans.  Corporate debt from lack of future revenues at risk.  The usual.  Israel and France closing ranks.  What more do you need?  After all, tomorrow is another day!

 

[Jeff Matthews]

1 minute ago, oldtimer said:

What more do you need? 

A bail-out.

[oldtimer]

1 minute ago, Jeff Matthews said:

A bail-out.

Already been decided.  

It must kill them to do the same as previous...

Oh jeezus Christ, deep state?  (said with moronic accent and believability)

[Jeff Matthews]

1 minute ago, oldtimer said:

It must kill them to do the same as previous...

Was it so partisan the first time around?  I seem to recall the bail-outs were non-partisan and over the objections of the newly self-proclaimed Tea Partiers.

[oldtimer]

It shouldn't be.  But currently it seems impossible not to make it so.  How recent was it that the health crisis was partisan?  A week?  Maybe two weeks?  It was the media and the other guys fault for talking about it.  Wasn't it just a day ago the so called leader still had to throw a barb in a partisan manner?  He can't help it, much as any 5 year old cant.  The tea partiers are now much more infiltrated even though many of the white supremacists are nominally gone.  They have been replaced by apologists and sycophants, but hey, we elected the decision makers.  It wasn't so partisan last time as you ask.  The adults knew something had to be done.  Where are the adults now?

[oldtimer]

The gist is that today some people want to politicize everything.  It doesn't help any solution.  Mnuchin had to cut the deal with the speaker of the house, because the head man didn't want cooties.  "Our so-called leaders speak."  We aspirate in the material world...lol.

[Jeff Matthews]

16 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Where are the adults now?

Apparently in agreement that bail-outs are needed... unless I am missing something.