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Covid19 redux

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There’s a lag before changes in people’s behaviors, like more social interaction, are reflected in coronavirus case data. "It takes about nine to 16 days to see increased infections and generally another five to seven days to see changes in the numbers of people hospitalized, said Rebecca Fischer, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the Texas A&M University School of Public Health. (Some individuals are only diagnosed once they make it to the hospital.)"

 

Houston, East Texas Gulf Coast RAC and RGV are at about 80% of hospital bed capacity. 

 

If you go to the start of this thread you will see the question asked "does anyone know anyone actually infected?" That is our frame of reference, our little world. Combine that we think, by human nature, in terms of linear relationships. 2,4,6,8. We naturally struggle with visualizing, exponential growth because of our frame of reference.

 

Epidemiology experts look at factors like the "Positivity" rate — the percentage of positive cases to tests conducted. The average daily positivity rate is calculated by dividing the 7-day average of positive cases by the 7-day average of tests conducted. This shows how the situation has changed over time by de-emphasizing daily swings. Public health experts want the average positivity rate to remain below 6%. In early May, our Governor said a rate over 10% would be a “warning flag”. The state exceeded that mark in June for the first time since April. 

 

Texas is currently at 13% positivity rate.

 

Below is the current hospitalizations for Texas:

 

 

image.thumb.png.613a1e7a18977b2fe905fd03e4575f0f.png

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46 minutes ago, Deang said:

I'm aware.

 

The anti-science/ conspiratorial types are going to do the rest of us in.

That’s nothing new.

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2 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

image.thumb.png.613a1e7a18977b2fe905fd03e4575f0f.png

May 25th George Floyd died.  May 30th Memorial weekend.  Both events gathered large crowds albeit for different reasons.  2 weeks later........BOOM go the numbers.

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Posted (edited)

Muted

Edited by Sancho Panza

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1 hour ago, CECAA850 said:

May 25th George Floyd died.  May 30th Memorial weekend.  Both events gathered large crowds albeit for different reasons.  2 weeks later........BOOM go the numbers.

Yes, and we have another 3-day holiday weekend coming up.

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It's a combination of both outdoor events where people are shoulder to shoulder and indoor activities like dining, drinking, and jobs that place people in close proximity to each other. Maybe the secret is to keep moving?

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31 minutes ago, Deang said:

Maybe the secret is to keep moving?

Maybe the secret is to listen to the scientists, and to stop being arrogant and stupid.

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2 hours ago, jimjimbo said:

Maybe the secret is to listen to the scientists, and to stop being arrogant and stupid.

Now you know how to beat the covid! Lol

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I'd like to listen to a scientist, or doctor if I only knew which one. This reminds of the early 80s when AIDS hit ... for every doctor that said one thing another said the opposite. 

 

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Just now, BigStewMan said:

I'd like to listen to a scientist, or doctor if I only knew which one. This reminds of the early 80s when AIDS hit ... for every doctor that said one thing another said the opposite. 

 

Butt, you still had a good idea how to avoid it.

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2 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Butt, you still had a good idea how to avoid it.

did we? Time answered that more than any personal revelation.  once upon a time, doctors said you could get AIDS from French kissing. back then, I didn't know nor did I ask every girl where she had been before me.

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1 minute ago, BigStewMan said:

did we? Time answered that more than any personal revelation.  once upon a time, doctors said you could get AIDS from French kissing. back then, I didn't know nor did I ask every girl where she had been before me.

So you're not going to admit what I did there...not like you Stew.

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1 minute ago, oldtimer said:

So you're not going to admit what I did there...not like you Stew.

He thinks you can't spiel.

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Just now, Jeff Matthews said:

He thinks you can't spiel.

He knows better, and you do too.

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3 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

So you're not going to admit what I did there...not like you Stew.

Maybe if he backs up and re-reads it.

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Crap I screwed up and gave you a like.  I suppose i could take it away.

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1 minute ago, CECAA850 said:
6 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

So you're not going to admit what I did there...not like you Stew.

Maybe if he backs up and re-reads it.

He'll get to the bottom of it.

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4 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

At this point we should all rise above it.

It'll end up bad if you keep it up.

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19 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

So you're not going to admit what I did there...not like you Stew.

I saw it ... but didn't want to get canceled.

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