Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?

[Dave A]

28 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

I used to believe that, but over a few years of thinking about it, I came to realize that the stock markets are here to stay.  The players will come and go, but the game remains the same.  It has whatever value the players say it has.  You don't need a rationale.  The only thing you need is agreement.  This concept of "agreed" value can be frustrating to accept, but heck, look at gold.  Who'd pay $1,000's for a miniscule chunk of metal?  But they do, and they will... until they won't.  Maybe diamonds will go out of style one day.  Anybody want to play?

 

 

Raise your prices.

Of course they are here to stay and one day they might be based on dividends too. Never said they were going away I said they were heading for big time trouble. If no one can calculate the values of all that is going on with derivitives and instant cash creation by sales of stock and no limits placed on what is done and how what will control it all from collapse?

[Dave A]

32 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Raise your prices

During times of inflation this is a two edged sword that makes businesses bleed. Your customers don't have as much disposable income for luxuries since necessities cost more. So you absorb expenses to try to keep buyers coming and eventually you do have to raise prices. The crap shoot is will the product line survive. But yes between postage and raw material increases there will be price increases coming from many. Capital gains from the stock market will pay for it all though so I am not worried.

[Jeff Matthews]

9 minutes ago, Dave A said:

Your customers don't have as much disposable income for luxuries since necessities cost more.

Unless they raise their prices, too.  The moral of the story is, "Don't get left behind."  I agree, though, your point is well-taken.  I just don't see these developments necessarily as pointing to collapse.

[Emile]

Down 786 pts today (3%), Nasdaq down 268 pts (3%). Any predictions for the rest of this week  

[jimjimbo]

27 minutes ago, Emile said:

Any predictions for the rest of this week

Sure, why not.  Buy low, sell high....genius.

[jimjimbo]

6 hours ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Maybe diamonds will go out of style one day. 

Diamonds should have gone out of style long ago, but the ignorant public doesn't want to admit that the diamond market is and has been a massive scam for decades.

[Dave A]

5 minutes ago, jimjimbo said:

Diamonds should have gone out of style long ago, but the ignorant public doesn't want to admit that the diamond market is and has been a massive scam for decades.

You got that right. A real untampered high grade Emerald or Sapphire, Alexandrite or Ruby is harder to come by than any Diamond.

[Dave A]

38 minutes ago, Emile said:

Down 786 pts today (3%), Nasdaq down 268 pts (3%). Any predictions for the rest of this week  

 

[Dave A]

6 hours ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Unless they raise their prices, too.  The moral of the story is, "Don't get left behind."  I agree, though, your point is well-taken.  I just don't see these developments necessarily as pointing to collapse.

The resilience of America is pretty amazing but the stories of Argentina and Venezuala show the end result of ignoring basic economic principles. They happened to do bad things in different areas than we are but the end result if things don't change will be the same over time. Dutch Tulip Bulbs come to mind. Mises is correct Ponzi is not. Same speculative frenzy as one in the early 1900's before they all started jumping out of windows proves it can happen here..

[Travis In Austin]

7 hours ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Maybe diamonds will go out of style one day.  Anybody want to play?

 

The only factor that matters is what your girlfriend or wife thinks. Never in our life time.

 

They have created artificial demand that keeps feeding off itself. The only people that need worry are people who buy "investment grade diamond." They are the ones who have bought in too far.

 

The better example is a Picasso,  Rembrandt, a Vinny.

[billybob]

Forever...DeBeers

Background noise is typically up to some degree in the market. Another type is the office or domestic type. After Abit, a trader can as a must block out the noise, to the extent, that focus is enough to make correct moves.

Similarly, one can block out the noise in a domestic setting to be

correct .

Of the 3, the focus, read ability to focus on the market is of prime importance. 

There are exceptions for sure.

[jimjimbo]

22 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

The only factor that matters is what your girlfriend or wife thinks.

I guess if you're whipped, that would be true.

[billybob]

33 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

The only factor that matters is what your girlfriend or wife thinks. Never in our life time.

 

They have created artificial demand that keeps feeding off itself. The only people that need worry are people who buy "investment grade diamond." They are the ones who have bought in too far.

 

The better example is a Picasso,  Rembrandt, a Vinny.

The market is fickle at times. Akin to a woman's fancy. Non-emotional  trading to the extent one can dis- associate, the more likely one has presence of mind

to differentiate a difference between a commodity and an

Industrial stone. Think you know this, of course... cheers.

 

[billybob]

47 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

The only factor that matters is what your girlfriend or wife thinks. Never in our life time.

 

They have created artificial demand that keeps feeding off itself. The only people that need worry are people who buy "investment grade diamond." They are the ones who have bought in too far.

 

The better example is a Picasso,  Rembrandt, a Vinny.

The market is fickle at times. Akin to a woman's fancy. Non-emotional  trading to the extent one can dis- associate, the more likely one has presence of mind

to differentiate a difference between a commodity and an

Industrial stone. Preoccupation

, distractions the enemy. Think you know this, of course cheers.

 

[mr clean]

Im in the process of getting one of my pensions this month. Im taking a lump sum. It figures thing would be uneasy at the time , but lower stock market numbers do mean there are some deals out in the market. Buy low sell high I guess.  I told my money guy last month to move more to bonds as a safety net and hit it right. Im only down 2 percent overall.

[Jeff Matthews]

43 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

Arrow 442 :

 

There is no hard and fast rule on where the market can go to, up or down.   

 

The LAST time we had a gap-down just like Monday February 24th's gap down was only one time, that was in 1930, and the market lost a total, peak to trough, of 84 %.  It took 21 years to get even.  According to Jill Mislinsky's data ( D.Short Advisors ) , in 2020 we were about 50% above valuations of the 1929 peak.    What if the " biggest bull market in history " ends with " the biggest bear market in history"??   What if we drop, peak to trough 90% overall, and the market reached 2,950 on the Dow??   How well will your plan of an arbitrary 35% overall drop,  and you being all-in / dollar cost averaged at Dow 23,500 work out for you ????   You'd be behind the eight ball by 20,550 Dow Jones points. Why ???

 

In bull and bear markets, the trend is your friend.  In a bull market, we buy the dips, sell the rallies.  In a bear market,  JUST the reverse.

 

What if...

 

That's the whole premise, isn't it?  What if you're right vs. what if you're wrong.  

[JJkizak]

Differences today from 1929 are money is always flowing with social security, medicare, pensions, FDIC, etc. In 1929 200 companies had all of the money and they were sitting on it.

JJK

[Jeff Matthews]

Are we headed into what we be known as "The Lost Decades?"

 

Or is this the reaction of a panicky populace losing confidence as a "novel" virus makes its way through the world, temporarily disrupting trade?

 

DJIA Index Values

 

July 1929                $5,184.90

November 1965     $7,704.33

July 1982                $2,139.86

February 2009        $8,588.52

 

Timing is everything and nothing.  

[oldtimer]

Personally, I doubt it is a lost decades event.  It is a big event though.  The structural framework is much different from then.  The Black Plague wiped out half (depending on which figures you take) of Europe.  Now that sucked.  Those who survived though saw a plethora of assets and opportunities in front of them.    I doubt this will be as bad as that, or even rival the 1919 flu.  Even in the lost decades, those who kept their houses came out just fine.  Not everyone was a Joad. The rich came out even better, being bondholders.  Think on this, even in the worst 20 year period of the US market, 1929 to 1949, the annual average return was over 3%.  Not stellar of course but not negative.  Alfred E Neuman lives! 

[oldtimer]

2 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

How old will we all be??

That is a big part of the individual decision, now innit?

What is the likelihood we will see a parade of Joads?  Sorry Steinbeck, but you deserve it.