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Jeff Matthews

Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?

Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?  

15 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. What's your prediction as to growth/loss in the DJIA from today (27,081) through 8/24/2020? (names and votes are public)

    • It will rise 10+%
    • It will rise between 5 and 10%
    • It will rise between 3 and 5%
    • It will rise between 0 and 3%
    • It will fall between 0 and 3%
      0
    • It will fall between 3 and 5%
      0
    • It will fall between 5 and 10%
    • It will fall between 10 and 15%
    • It will fall between 15 and 25%
    • It will fall between 25 and 35%
    • It will fall 35+%

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  • Poll closed on 03/27/20 at 03:08 AM

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4 minutes ago, Coytee said:

Shhhhh.....  don't get too smug....  market will give them an opportunity sooner or later.

 

Just as it's never over when it goes down.....  it's never over when it goes up......

 

(I wasn't calling you smug in a negative way)

Oh, I know.  I'm just having some fun.   I'm not calling anything.  With times like these, you have people scrambling in both directions.  

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Medwyn made a great call, but he's a bear at heart.  He doesn't like bulls.  He was mentored by a bear.  He has gone by the name dowto1000 on ebay since 1999.  Bear is in his blood.  It is his outlook on life, and it has likely served him well from time to time - enough to have come this far. 

 

Still wish I'd have put $5 -10k in TVIX just for the hell of it, but I had never even heard of it before.  I'm still buying incrementally, but I think the peak is on the horizon.  I'm not a bear, but if we return to 29,000, I sure would like to look at alternatives.

 

 

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Even a bear can turn on a dime.

Would like to think anyone even

remotely following the stock market is able to spot an opportunity like the TVIX recently.

There will be others.

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Back in 1987, just prior to "Black Monday" a Ms Elaine Garzarelli made some very bearish comments on the stock market....  guess what?  She freaking NAILED it and a mere "X" number of days/weeks later, the market fell 25% in a single day, making her the Guru of the moment.  You saw her face everywhere.  I don't recall EVER seeing a single one of her followup predictions do anything of note.  

 

She basically called for the market to go down like many voices.....and it did, now she's some hero.  Well, if you look back, though it went down, it became a FANTASTIC buying opportunity.

 

Is Mr. Medwin our forum's Elaine Garzarelli???  We won't know until some history passes but based on "day 1 of the stock market to today", I'm willing to say he's a flash in this pan.  Yes, he masterfully nailed the market.  Would it have been as masterful had the Crono-Virus NOT reared its head up and bitten the world in the hiney???  We'll never know.

 

Aside from that, we're all going to get these wonder-checks.....fine.  They're printing money now.  Is this going to cause inflation???  I don't know, I sucked at Economics 501.  What I DO know and will ask rhetorically, where are the two best places to have your money during inflationary times?

 

1.  Real Estate

2.  Equities/Stock Market

 

So if this is "normal" and follows a path like virtually every other pull back since the inception of the Dow Jones market, it's definately a pothole we've hit however, this too shall pass and a number of years from now, we'll be looking back at today's prices saying "DANG, I wish I would h ave bought some "ABC" during that crash"

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elaine_Garzarelli

 

While working as a stock analyst at Shearson Lehman, she became known for predicting Black Monday, the stock market crash of 1987. As indicated in the Wall Street Journal article on October 28, 1987, “Ms. Garzarelli, a research analyst and money manager for Shearson Lehman Brothers, Inc., turned bearish on Sept. 9. By Oct. 12, when she appeared on Cable News Network’s “Money Line” program, she was fiercely bearish, predicting an imminent collapse in the stock market. She gave USA Today a similarly dire forecast the next day.”

Despite her success, she expressed discomfort with being put on a pedestal as a seer with a crystal ball:

"I felt awkward because I got so much attention. A few weeks after that I made a negative comment, and the market dropped 120 points that day. The Wall Street Journal wrote that I had moved the stock market, and I was very uncomfortable. My career was going very nicely until then, and it was too much attention. It was a lot of pressure."[5]

[6]Since then, her record has been mixed. For instance, on July 23, 1996, she told clients that U.S. stocks could fall 15% to 20% from peaks reached earlier in the summer. The Dow Jones industrial average closed that day at 5,346.55--and had risen 45% by Nov 1997.

 

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Que sera sera!  I have truly enjoyed watching Medwin make the TVIX call.  I sincerely hope he made a killing on it.  It went up 20x!  ABSOLUTELY FABULOUS!

 

It's exactly what I'm going to do when the next pandemic hits!  🤪

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31 minutes ago, billybob said:

Would like to think anyone even

remotely following the stock market is able to spot an opportunity like the TVIX recently.

Let us know when you spot one.

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29 minutes ago, Coytee said:

What I DO know and will ask rhetorically, where are the two best places to have your money during inflationary times?

 

1.  Real Estate

When interest rates go down, real estate values rise.  Rates have been low for a long time.  Too low, really.  Expect a small jump due to recent cuts, but after that, the rate-cutting game is pretty much over.  

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22 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

the rate-cutting game is pretty much over.  

 

(meant as a quasi joke)

 

Once you get to zero, it's hard to cut anymore

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30 minutes ago, Coytee said:

 

(meant as a quasi joke)

 

Once you get to zero, it's hard to cut anymore

 

 

Negative interest rates exist  today.

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55 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

When interest rates go down, real estate values rise.  Rates have been low for a long time.  Too low, really.  Expect a small jump due to recent cuts, but after that, the rate-cutting game is pretty much over.  

 

Read D.Short.Com web site for good real estate market value insights Jeff.   Mostly, Jill Mislinsky is the gal.

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2 hours ago, Coytee said:

First, "what is statistics??"  It's the science of making a guess and knowing how far off that guess might be....

I thought that was Probability? Or is "probability" included in an academic major of Statistics?

 

I only took two courses in this area. An undergraduate business course that combined "Statistics" and "Probability" and a masters level class that dealt with the academic side of "statistics" dealt with how to set up valid studies for peer reviewed journal articles (and how to spot flawed or weak studies). The graduate course went in depth on variables and correlation in a number of academic areas including medicine, science, history, psychology, social sciences and economics.

 

Are "probability" and "statistics two separate disciplines or inextricably intertwined and considered to be one?

 

Travis

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Coytee , 

 

What makes my 1-27-2020 thread unique, is, unlike Elaine, I had never ever been mentioning "BOO" about the stock market in ANY thread, prior to initiating that !!!

 

Coytee, you have to have a VOLUME capitulation, to safely buy stocks in a Bear Market. 

 

This is hardly a "bump in the road" as you chose to term it.  Your comments are unfortunately,, useless again, (like buying PUTS ), as it would be from most bull-market-trained brokers. 

 

It is the fastest and best start ever - of what is termed a Bear Market.  But just the start.  The largest Bull market in history, ends with one heck of a Bear Market. Will this become the largest Bear Market in History ??  Possibly so. 

 

1929 was -84%, .............maybe this will end at -95%, a couple years from now, dragged out.

 

Its very simple, the trend is your friend, the trend is down,  one must let the MARKET tell them, ( via a Volume Capitulation ) when to move back into stocks. 

 

On those tumultuous one or two volume capitulation big-down days in the future, I'm guessing 99% of the general public will be too scared to buy !!

 

Forget non market topics ( statistics ) Here, IMHO, is the most important GIST of things, if anyone holds stocks now :  

 

How many will do the "typically-correct thing", and SELL into strength, SELL OUT everything they own into this, the first rally, and go into cash ??  Darn few of you.   Study the Psychological Cheat Sheet Chart I've posted, so you can advance yourself, mentally / psychologically to recognize events to your advantage.   Do the right thing.    

 

This is the COMPLACENCY- stage on that Chart, as you anticipate the Government's $1,200 check helping out, just as all anticipated HOLDING for Trump's re-election , 1 and 2 -2020.   

 

Jeff 

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41 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

 

Negative interest rates exist  today.

Yes, it's amazing!  I don't know yet what to make of it.  

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Probability. and Statistics are 2 separate entitles imo.

In the case of the stock market, they come together in the case of decision making. Sometime, they remain apart.

A fair read on the one is the Statistical Survey. A little dated now but, written by Dr Charles Lininger,of the World Population Council.

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8 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

I thought that was Probability? Or is "probability" included in an academic major of Statistics?

 

I only took two courses in this area. An undergraduate business course that combined "Statistics" and "Probability" and a masters level class that dealt with the academic side of "statistics" dealt with how to set up valid studies for peer reviewed journal articles (and how to spot flawed or weak studies). The graduate course went in depth on variables and correlation in a number of academic areas including medicine, science, history, psychology, social sciences and economics.

 

Are "probability" and "statistics two separate disciplines or inextricably intertwined and considered to be one?

 

Travis

 

 

Yes, it's probability...  so you are going to make a guess that your defective rate is say, .04%...after doing some analysis, you can then state with "X" percent certainty that your defective rate is .04% plus/minus .005 so reworded, you can say with (for example) 95% confidence that your defective rate falls somewhere between .035% and .045%

 

That's my quick recollection....  it has been a number of years since I've dusted any of that off my memory banks!!

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

You have to have a VOLUME capitulation, before you can safely buy stocks in a Bear Market. 

 

without copying various things you said.....

 

"fine and so what??"

 

We've had bear markets before.....we've had bull markets before and we're going to have them again. Guess what?  When the market gets over blown, it usually blows steam off and goes down.  Guess what?  After the market has 4 flat tires, it usually goes back up.

 

Please pick ANY bear market in history that you choose....  any one of them.

 

Now, had someone held fast....  had someone averaged down....  and we look at them TODAY, what's their damage?

 

I'd suggest their current damage (if we close our eye for a moment on what's going on literally today) is likely to be a profitable account.  Now, I DO agree that people can pull the rug out from under themselves.  I see that happen all the time.  

 

That said, can we agree that the crash of 1929 resulted in a bear market?  Now, pick any stock from that era (that didn't go bankrupt) and tell me how they are worse off?  That was one of the worst markets in history.....

 

You (not you Jeff, but you as a human being) cannot "inhale forever" nor can you "exhale forever" you have to breath....  now, you can take an exceptionally large inhale....  or you can hold your breath for an elongated amount of time but you STILL must breath.

 

Nothing goes UP forever....  nothing goes DOWN forever.  The market has to breath in spite of it's holding is breath or taking a large inhale.

 

I would LOVE to have some shares of Coke, MMM, PG...heck, I don't even know who existed in 1929!!!  but would LOVE to have those companies in my portfolio at that bear market price!!!  Only way to make that happen is to buy them.

 

I think Jeff (the other Jeff) said that you were inherently a bear (??) .  I had gotten that vibe but didn't (and still don't) know that to be true.  That said, I freely admit I'm inherently bullish on the market.... I'm an optimist.  I believe in the future of this country.  I believe in capitalism.  I believe that "X" years from now, the markets in general will be at higher values than they are today.  I ALSO believe there are going to be pullbacks, bear markets, all of which I view as buying opportunities for the right investor.

 

Just because we go into a bear market doesn't mean it's "game over"....  the sun is still going to rise the following day!

 

My wife (and many other people over my life) say I've got the patience of Job.  

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41 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

 

Negative interest rates exist  today.

Yes, in Europe and Japan.

 

It started after the global economic crises of the last decade. The central bank in Sweden (oldest in the world) announced that it would charge banks to hold deposits in 2009. That's the key concept, it discourages banks from leaving cash on deposit in the central bank, they are losing money. The central bank in Denmark became the first to bring its key policy rate below zero. Ultimately trickles into the bond markets in these areas. Negative interest rates simply provide an incentive for banks to loan money and assume risk to stimulate economies.

 

Bond yields are negative in France, Denmark and the Netherlands right now (Tradeweb).

 

I don't think the Fed will be looking at negative interest rates anytime soon (I believe Congress and Treasury accomplishes the same thing with loan guarantee programs, and but haven't looked at this in depth).

 

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46 minutes ago, Coytee said:

Just because we go into a bear market doesn't mean it's "game over"....  the sun is still going to rise the following day!

This is not the bear's view.  The bear's view, which is every much as valid, is that many people will come to a point of need, and for that reason, they don't have the ability to bet long.  These people should definitely be fearful.

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Then I'd suggest they might not have been invested properly.

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