Hurricane Season - 2010

[RT FAN]

My wife and I have a weekend house on the east end of Long Island, so we have been watching old Earl closely. Right now he is forecast to pass 150 miles east of Montauk point, which will result in Tropical Storm conditions on the east end. A buddy of mine stopped by my place to batten down the hatches and tie down the outdoor furniture etc for me. Saved me a trip out last night. We will be driving out this evening and hopefully the damage won't be too bad. Probably will lose electrical service. I have to remember to take down my Bar Harbor buoy wind chime tonight or there won't be too much sleep happening. Sumbitch will be clanging away all day, I'm sure.

[EM3]

Here is some Earl Footage. I stayed less than 75 yards from where this was shot

http://hamptonroads.com/2010/09/raw-videos-hurricane-earl-sweeps-through-nags-head-buxton?cid=rltd

[dtel]

It's a good thing it stayed offshore. [Y]

[Myhamish]

Groomlake and dflip, -

I have concerns about the weakened Earl hitting the Bay of Fundy area of Nova Scotia after the record breaking heat wave. Would that pull it in or repel it? Once it's passed over Nova Scotia would it be on a bead for PEI?

You are both providing a valuable service. Thank you. Keep it coming. Slainte. Hamish

[Dflip]

Keep an eye on Gaston as it reforms. It's not very big at the moment, but the projected path.. it's heading for warmer waters and the shield is not directing it to the North Atlantic. It's heading for either Florida or the gulf at some point. Of course, the islands in the Caribbean may weaken it some, but the warm waters further west could result in a significant hurricane. It's also worth noting that this is the point where we used to note the start of hurricanes, where we now can see them coming off the coast of Africa. As they hit the leeward islands, that's usually where it starts to get interesting.

There is a storm in the Gulf of Mexico, but is so close to shore, that it might get larger, but it seems to be headed mostly into Mexico, with rain in the Brownsville, Corpus Christi area.

It's been a lucky season so far in regards to major hurricanes hitting the mainland U.S. Two storms behind Gaston might also yield a storm, but it's been a strange year.

Earl took out power to a significant part of Nova Scotia, 221 000 homes, at it continued to wander up the east coast.

[sunburnwilly]

Surfed at my home break Folly Beach SC all day . Jeeeeeeez , Earl was pumping in swell and providing offshore winds . It got a little spooky ...

Pretty big for Charleston SC . ,Not me but I had several of these moments Thursday .

[Mallette]

That Campeche low must be BIG. When I looked outside last night I noted clouds rushing E to W. The weather predicted sunny today, showers tomorrow. I think we'll see rain today, and, depending on what that thing does, LOTS of rain tomorrow.

Dave

[dtel]

Nice looking waves there Sunburn, I don't think I would have been out there, maby close to the shore ?

Dave I can see why there calling for rain for your area.

[Mallette]

"They" aren't, dtel, though I suspect they changed their tune today. Evening news said no rain today. When I took a look outside last night was when I figured they'd been spending too much time at their computers and not enought looking at the sky.

We've already had several showers and it's cloudy.

Dave

[Dflip]

Dave, here is Hermine's path as a tropical storm. It's now heading for the Texas/Mexico border near Brownsville. You will be on the eastern edge as it entends to Baton Rouge with rain. You are on the wrong side of the storm, but maybe far enough away that it could have been a lot worse.

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

HERMINE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING.  GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BECOME CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 45 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
HERMINE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE
ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  HERMINE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STORM MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

DUE TO THE LIMITATIONS IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
CHANGE...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
COAST TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY THAT HERMINE COULD STRENGTHEN
MORE THAN EXPECTED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/1500Z 23.4N  95.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 24.9N  96.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 27.0N  98.3W    55 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 29.1N  99.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 31.4N 100.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 36.0N  99.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[Dflip]

I won't be posting during work hours because it's back to school time. Summer holidays are over and it's back to teaching.

Gaston seems to have burnt itself out at the moment.

200 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE...LOCATED ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
HARLINGEN TEXAS.

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GASTON.  THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY DEFINED AND THE ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREFORE...THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  

2. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Mallette]

Dave, here is Hermine's path as a tropical storm.

Harold Taft of Channel 5, DFW, was either the first or one of the first TV weathermen in the country. He served from 1949 to the early 2000's and saw a lot of new technology. Towards the end, he'd give the computer's read on things and then say "Let's take a look outside and I'll tell you what's really going to happen." I took his advice and it's amazing.

Sunday our forecasters were saying Labor Day would be rain free with some scattered showers Tuesday. Before I went to bed Sunday night I "...took a look outside" and noted clouds moving east to west at high speed. I told my wife there was a low in the Gulf and we'd get rain Monday and it would increase. Flash flood warnings today.

Thanks, Harold.

Dave

[Gilbert]

Hermine is kicking asss and taking names in the Texas Hill Country. Since about 9 or 4 am this morning our area (approx. 33 miles North of Downtown SanAntonio Area) has recieved about 6 inches, 4 inches of that coming within the last 2 hours. Ground is soaked, deeply saturated from all the drizzle last night. Many areas in the city are flooded, and roads are closed. I'm sit'ing tight in my home office watching the wind whip the trees around and trying to read the new ACI code changes, cheers....

[oldtimer]

We're getting rain from it up in north central. Precip forecast for tomorrow is 100%, you don't see that often here.

[Dflip]

Hermine, according to the last forecast for it:

THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY THURSDAY. THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS IN THESE AREAS. 

The rest of the possibilities:

200 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE...CURRENTLY LOCATED INLAND OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF ABILENE.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT5
AND WMO HEADER WTNT35 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 400 AM CDT.

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED NEAR AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. 
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. THE REMNANTS OF GASTON...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SANTO
DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ARE PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING
LESS LIKELY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.   

3. SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
DISSIPATED.  SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.  THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Dflip]

The 8 a.m. update. Storm one is worth keeping an eye on, although it is in the sourtherly Caribbean Sea.

800 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Igor is projected to reach 85 knot winds, but is going to hit the same force shield as many of the early hurricanes and tropical storms. 

[Dflip]

Storm one is still interesting in that it could quite easily intensify. It has the potential to end up colliding with the Yucatan Pennisula or could get some momenetum from the gulf. It's just reaching the stage where we used to see the start of hurricanes. Now we can track them off the coast of Africa. A 50% chance this far out means somebody is getting a lot of rain, in the near future. The other bad news is that it's moving a 5 miles per hour as a forward speed. This gives it more chance to intensify and when it hits an area it just keeps dropping rain in large amounts with very little forward movement. That's not good news!

With Igor, the projection means that the areas most affected this season might be Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, in Canada. It has been a strange year so far. I know that parts of Texas have got a lot of rain and the accumulated effects and I am partly joking, but Earl did put out the power in a good part of Nova Scotia.

200 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 465 MILES WEST OF 
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THIS
AREA...AND DATA FROM A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THIS SYSTEM INDICATES THE CIRCULATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Dflip]

At the moment, not much to worry about, although storm 1 could produce rain and winds for the Texas/Mexico border. The other hurricanes and storms are going out to sea.

Storm 1 from above:

Storm 2:

Igor is following the same path as previously outlined.

[Groomlakearea51]

Eeegor now has the Eye, so it's "Eyegor" (son of Igor, per Young Frankenstein....) and it's a monster in the making....

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/11...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER
EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF IGOR. THE LARGE-
SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
INDICATED AS IGOR ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND DAY 2. A CLUSTER THAT INCLUDES THE
GFDL...THE GFS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS A WEAKER RIDGE
AND AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASED ON PRIMARILY ON THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BEYOND DAY 3
AND CLOSER TO THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 17.7N 45.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 17.8N 47.5W 105 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 49.8W 110 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 18.4N 51.8W 115 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 19.0N 53.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 20.7N 56.7W 125 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 22.6N 59.6W 125 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 24.5N 62.5W 125 KT

[Groomlakearea51]

It was the same conditions in the Atlantic that spawned Andrew, which pound for pound and based upon it's relatively small size, was the most destructive hurricane ever to hit us. In terms of destruction Katrina, and others have cost more, but they were big, and spread their "bigness" over larger areas. It's the CAT-4+ storms that will, notwithstanding storm surge, simply remove anything they cross over.

That's what makes Igor so dangerous. If the so-called "bermuda high" was any larger, Igor would turn northwest later, and come right across Florida with all of the attendant and disastrous results.

I was sent to Homestead immediately after Andrew. I've seen "war damage", etc. Homestead and the surrounding areas looked like Dresden after the firebombing.... Actually the "swath" where the eye passed looked like Hiroshima.... Absolute and total devastation. There are very few structures that can handle 180 mph winds with gusts to 195 mph.

We should all be thankful that the conditions that exist out there are still in place and do not appear to be changing much. And less we forget, we've got 30 days to go.