Hurricane Irma 2017

[wvu80]

7 minutes ago, billybob said:

There is a movie about that in black and white. Key Largo...

Great movie involving a hurricane.  Great director, incredible cast, Bogart and Bacall.  They filmed it on location, I've been to the place where they filmed that, it's a tourist stop.

 

Quote

Key Largo (film) Key Largo is a 1948 film noir directed by John Huston and starring Humphrey Bogart, Edward G. Robinson and Lauren Bacall. The supporting cast features Lionel Barrymore and Claire Trevor.

 

[JohnJ]

1 hour ago, Tarheel said:

I don't like the green line to the right.  That's Wilmington, NC.

Even closer to Calabash. 

Wonder how many times literally tens of thousands of folks stayed at Myrtle Beach and drove the hour to Calabash, NC for dinner after the sunburn. That last (the only one when I was a kid) restaurant by the dock had those fantastic little shrimp and other great fried seafood!! 

[Max2]

Soggy Dollar Webcam on Jost Van Dyke

 

Just north of St. John U.S.V.I.

 

Its getting closer (The Eye)

 

http://www.soggydollar.com/webcam

 

 

EDIT:   Just noticed power has been down since 7:53 AM this morn

 

 

[JohnJ]

@wvu80 That train was an awful scenario. Flagler, the Rockefellers other wealthy northerners (no offense meant) built the I-95 corridor. Daytona has some incredible architecture from them, Miami they practically built from scratch as a new Riviera.

Still had ex-cons, slaves, indentured servants, veterans all scoffed at like some blue-collar workers still are. Finishing that railroad, almost to the end, most of them died there.

**What I'm able to pull up right now, goes against the report I researched and did in grade school about that storm. I see veterans mentioned, seen a movie where slaves and others were depicted. Not sure what to believe anymore with the rewriting/cleansing of history so prevalent now. I'll leave it up reluctantly.

Edited September 6, 2017 by JohnJ

[Tarheel]

3 hours ago, JohnJ said:

Even closer to Calabash. 

Wonder how many times literally tens of thousands of folks stayed at Myrtle Beach and drove the hour to Calabash, NC for dinner after the sunburn. That last (the only one when I was a kid) restaurant by the dock had those fantastic little shrimp and other great fried seafood!! 

yes they call it Calabash style seafood and if you like fried its pretty good.  I've been there a time or two  though I like it broiled or grilled as well.

 

You guys in harm's way be prepared.  Don't do like Carl and not fill up the tub for flushing.  He was busy though.....said something about going to his first rodeo

 

Dave.....LF is from Wheeling.  She recalls the heavy rain from Hugo too.

[CECAA850]

3 minutes ago, Tarheel said:

Don't do like Carl and not fill up the tub for flushing.

Unless you have 25,000 gallons of clean water in your back yard.

[JL Sargent]

Models have shifted. Reported 10 minutes ago.

 

[billybob]

Thanks and what is the source JL? Looks like NWS but. Wonder if we get a consensus today by others...

[Youthman]

Schools just notified us they are closed Thurs and Friday. 

 

I went by Publix this morning to see if they had water.  Most stores are without water.  I felt like it was Black Friday.  Many shelves were empty (bread, charcoal, water etc).  This is a pic of the bread isle.  They just received a delivery of gallon water and were limiting to 4 gallons per family.

 

Talked to @WakeJunkie this morning.  If it looks really bad, we may head his way to Alabama for a few days till the storm passes.  Will see.  Everyone stay safe.

 

 

 

 

[JL Sargent]

Each one of those lines is an established "model" for tracking generated by computer calculations. Some of these models take a supercomputer to run and some can be run on a PC in a few seconds. There are lots of models out there, some are global models and some are not. There is not a con census per se because each model is different. For example, the NHC model I would assume is a compilation of several models used by the National Hurricane Center.

 

AVNO / GFSO	Global Forecast System Model Forecast
AVNI / GFSI	Previous GFS Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
AP##	GFS Ensemble Member Forecast (## = 01 to 20)
AC00	GFS Ensemble Control Forecast
AEMN	GFS Ensemble Mean Forecast
AEMI	Previous AEMN Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
CMC	Canadian Global Model Forecast
CMCI	Previous CMC Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
CP##	Canadian Ensemble Member Forecast (## = 01 to 20)
CC00	Canadian Ensemble Control Forecast
CEMN	Canadian Ensemble Mean Forecast
CEMI	Previous CEMN Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
COTC	U.S. Navy COAMPS-TC Model Forecast
COTI	U.S. Navy COAMPS-TC Model Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
COAL	U.S. Navy COAMPS-TC Model Forecast, Atlantic Basin
COAI	Previous COAMPS-TC Atlantic Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
COCE	U.S. Navy COAMPS-TC Model Forecast, E. Pacific Basin
COEI	Previous COAMPS-TC E. Pacific Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
EGRR / UKX	UKMET Model Forecast
EGRI / UKXI	Previous UKMET Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
EMX / ECMF	ECMWF Model Forecast (rare; generally archives only)
EMXI	Previous ECMWF Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr (rare; generally archives only)
JGSM	Japanese Global Spectral Model Forecast
JGSI	Previous Japanese Global Spectral Model Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
NAM	North American Mesoscale Model Forecast
NAMI	Previous NAM Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
NGPS / NGX	U.S. Navy NOGAPS Model Forecast
NGPI / NGXI	Previous NOGAPS Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
NVGM	U.S. Navy NAVGEM Model Forecast
NVGI	Previous NAVGEM Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr

[wvu80]

32 minutes ago, JL Sargent said:

There is not a con census per se because each model is different. For example, the NHC model I would assume is a compilation of several models used by the National Hurricane Center.

Our local forecasters refer to using the "European" model, supposedly the most accurate and it's not even on the list you posted.  I sure have no idea of what is the "most accurate" and based on the path of Hurricane Harvey two weeks ago it's clear it is still an educated guess.

[Youthman]

6 minutes ago, wvu80 said:

and based on the path of Hurricane Harvey two weeks ago it's clear it is still an educated guess.

Absolutely.  Weather is not predictable.  It can turn, it can build and it can die out completely.  Nothing we can do to change that.  I have a peace about it but still am doing my part to prepare for it as best as I can.

[CECAA850]

1 hour ago, JL Sargent said:

For example, the NHC model I would assume is a compilation of several models used by the National Hurricane Center.

The graph you posted above is called the spaghetti graph.

[CECAA850]

1 hour ago, Youthman said:

Many shelves were empty (bread, charcoal, water etc).  This is a pic of the bread isle.  They just received a delivery of gallon water and were limiting to 4 gallons per family.

This is what it looked like in the meat aisles here in TX.  We don't eat no stinkin tofu even if we're starving.

 

[JL Sargent]

13 minutes ago, CECAA850 said:

The graph you posted above is called the spaghetti graph.

They sure are, as are all of those multi model tracking prediction graphs.

 

[USNRET]

The horn just went off and we are launching anything flyable to Freeport to evacuate folks.

[wvu80]

4 minutes ago, USNRET said:

The horn just went off and we are launching anything flyable to Freeport to evacuate folks.

Where is Freeport?

[USNRET]

1 minute ago, wvu80 said:

Where is Freeport?

Bahama

[Wardsweb]

Stay safe folks. This is a bad one.

[Travis In Austin]

2 hours ago, wvu80 said:

Our local forecasters refer to using the "European" model, supposedly the most accurate and it's not even on the list you posted.  I sure have no idea of what is the "most accurate" and based on the path of Hurricane Harvey two weeks ago it's clear it is still an educated guess.

from the weather underground 

 

 

Model performance

So which is the best? The best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF. This model out-performed the official NHC forecast in 2010 for 3-day and 4-day forecasts, and in 2009 for 4-day and 5-day forecasts. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our Wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 3, over the past two years, the GFS and GFDL model have been the next best models, with the UKMET model not far behind. Last year, the NOGAPS model did very poorly, forcing NHC to come up with some new consensus models this year, the TCOA and TVCA, that do not include the NOGAPS model. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011).