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Jeff Matthews

Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?

Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?  

15 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. What's your prediction as to growth/loss in the DJIA from today (27,081) through 8/24/2020? (names and votes are public)

    • It will rise 10+%
    • It will rise between 5 and 10%
    • It will rise between 3 and 5%
    • It will rise between 0 and 3%
    • It will fall between 0 and 3%
      0
    • It will fall between 3 and 5%
      0
    • It will fall between 5 and 10%
    • It will fall between 10 and 15%
    • It will fall between 15 and 25%
    • It will fall between 25 and 35%
    • It will fall 35+%

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  • Poll closed on 03/27/20 at 03:08 AM

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23 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

Yes, in Europe and Japan.

 

It started after the global economic crises of the last decade. The central bank in Sweden (oldest in the world) announced that it would charge banks to hold deposits in 2009. That's the key concept, it discourages banks from leaving cash on deposit in the central bank, they are losing money. The central bank in Denmark became the first to bring its key policy rate below zero. Ultimately trickles into the bond markets in these areas. Negative interest rates simply provide an incentive for banks to loan money and assume risk to stimulate economies.

 

 

Good analysis.  I haven't looked at how negative rates work, and this explains it pretty well.  It reminds me of the early 2,000's when "no doc" 110% loans were advertised on radio stations, etc.  I was surprised to hear them basically inviting lending fraud, which of course was rampant by the end of 2008.

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2 hours ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

Its very simple, the trend is your friend, the trend is down

You are too focused on a lineal trend.  "Lines.  Lines.  Everywhere there's lines!"

 

There's more to a line than meets the eye.

 

Think of a different trend - like QE1, QE2, QE3 and next...  You guessed it!

 

If we have the fastest bear down, why can't we have the fastest bull up?  The world is your oyster!

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20 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

If we have the fastest bear down, why can't we have the fastest bull up? 

Anyone that thinks that they can predict it is fooling themselves. 

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11 minutes ago, CECAA850 said:

Anyone that thinks that they can predict it is fooling themselves. 

I just watched a guy on Fox Business Channel say, "The market already knows about the virus.  It already knows about the stimulus.  It already knows about the unemployment claims, etc."

 

Then, why doesn't the market already know which way it is going?  (lol)

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There is still truth to the old saying "there's a bull market somewhere" - One only needs to find it.

Since you can speculate, invest, &/or even bet with the various inverse vehicles available, at low pricing levels, & then sell at higher pricing levels for a profit, this is a Bull market if played correctly to take advantage of the offerings.

 

In these discussions it appears that the TVIX has been at least one of the vehicles available to those seeking cover, shelter, leverage, a hedge, or exposure to potential profits.

Traditional buying opportunities will again surface & hopefully y'all will have ca$h available to act on those opportunities.

 

If not, you will be looking in the rearview mirror shaking your head and telling yourself if only I had the funds to invest back in...............

 

I saw this 1st hand with the housing crisis when houses were selling for peanuts but it required CA$H to purchase them & the ability to HOLD those properties for a significant amount of time in order to make the BIG gains.  Converting them into rentals was an option to soften the cost of the holding period but if & only if you trusted a renter to pay you regularly, stay in your rental unit for a length of time, and then not totally trash the place or force you to seek legal assistance to evict them - all added costs to your initial investment.

 

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5 hours ago, Coytee said:

Food for thought...

 

Maybe not for you Jeff M  (Matthews or Medwin???  HAHAHAHAHAHAA)

 

Anyway, those in the north have to deal with the cold of winter.....  spring comes, things thaw out and all the sudden there is a fresh new happier outlook on life.

 

This virus thing will have some controls/constraints put onto it.....we are breaking into spring/summer....the sun is coming out.  Once these things happen, the average outlook on life/markets will improve.

 

That's my opinion and I'm sticking with it......final answer!

 

 

Recently changed my photo which reflects your underlined statement above.

Longer, brighter, better days ahead - fingers crossed that this doesn't become the year.................that wasn't.

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13 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

We are now out of Bear territory!  Shortest bear ever?

NOT at all what I was conveying.

But rather, if you are investing or trading within an inverse vehicle (VIX, TVIX, puts, etc.) you are speculating that the vehicle in question will have its price increase - correct?

That by definition is a BULLISH stance even though the overall hedge is for the equity markets to decrease.

 

We surely remain in a BEAR market, but the BULLISH inverse investor capitalizes on these bear market downturns because his inverse vehicle has actually INCREASED in value.

 

In essence, it could be argued that there is never a BEAR market in place.

YMMV..............considerably :D

 

 

 

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Just now, Arrow#422 said:

We surely remain in a BEAR market,

I know what you said in your earlier post.  

 

Because the stock market closed so high today, we are now officially out of a bear market.  That's what they reported on FBN.

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23 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

I know what you said in your earlier post.  

 

Because the stock market closed so high today, we are now officially out of a bear market.  That's what they reported on FBN.

 

 

In 1929, we had the biggest and longest lasting bounce off the first sell-off low - ever.  It recovered 48 % of the drop.  Then, it drew blood - for a long time. 

 

2020, on a closing-price basis, Dow Jones, we have rallied back so far as of today, 36.1 % of the drop ( drop was about 10,960 points ) .

 

Jeff Medwin

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3 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

 

In 1929, we had the biggest and longest-in-time bounce off the first sell-off low - ever.  It recovered 48 % of the drop.  Then it drew blood - for a long time. 

 

2020, on a closing-price basis, Dow Jones, we have rallied back so far as of today, 36.1 % of the drop ( drop was about 10,960 points ) .

 

Jeff Medwin

It's kind of interesting how definitions work, isn't it?  We were, by definition, in a bear market, and we need to jump and bail.  Now, we're out of the bear...  "The trend is your friend."  

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1 minute ago, Jeff Matthews said:

It's kind of interesting how definitions work, isn't it?  We were, by definition, in a bear market, and we need to jump and bail.  Now, we're out of the bear...  "The trend is your friend."  

 

 

1929 was also briefly "out of a bear market", by your reckoning.  However, after a 48% retracement from the initial lows, the lambs all went to slaughter, over many many months. 

 

No, there has been NO capitulation Jeff,................ by any stretch of the imagination.  The first rally up is the public complacency stage .. People all HOPE it will get better.  Just look again on the Psychological Cheat Sheet Chart. 

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They got a deal on the bill; it will be passed tomorrow.

 

Pelosi says this is just the beginning.  More to come.  A lot will be on the table, including infrastructure. 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

 

In 1929, we had the biggest and longest lasting bounce off the first sell-off low - ever.  It recovered 48 % of the drop.  Then, it drew blood - for a long time. 

 

2020, on a closing-price basis, Dow Jones, we have rallied back so far as of today, 36.1 % of the drop ( drop was about 10,960 points ) .

 

Jeff Medwin

 

I still find it fascinating that in this day And age of analytics, probabilities and governing mathematics that people still use historical data points as a basis for future projections. The two have NOTHING to do with each other... it's like the folks that sit a roulette wheel or baccarat table and they think that if they record past performance,in some way they can predict future outcomes... that's not the way it works.

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2 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

The first rally up is the public complacency stage .. People all HOPE it will get better.  Just look again on the Psychological Cheat Sheet Chart. 

 

Disbelief?

 

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1 minute ago, Schu said:

 

I still find it fascinating that in this day And age of analytics, probabilities and governing mathematics that people still use historical data points as a basis for future projections. The two have NOTHING to do with each other... it's like folks that sit a roulette wheel or baccarat table and they think that if they record past performance that in some way they can predict future outcomes... that's not the way it works.

 

 

You laughed at me in my 1-27-2020 post.   

 

 

With all your "analytics, probabilities and governing mathematics" how did almost everyone's 401K plan do,  in the last two months??

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1 minute ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

 

You laughed at me in my 1-27-2020 post.   

 

 

With all your "analytics, probabilities and governing mathematics" how did almost everyone's 401K plan do,  in the last two months??

I think he's trying to say you got lucky!

 

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I'm leaning with Mr. Medwin here....  though from a literal perspective you (the other Jeff!  and Schu are correct....  don't forget you're still dealing with human frailties.  People tend to repeat the same mistakes over & over...  You do however, make an otherwise valid point....  today has nothing in common with the world of the 1929 crash.

 

I'm still waiting for Mr. Medwin to pick any bear market of his choice....  and name a couple stocks so we can go look up their price at the worst of the bear market and see where they are today.

 

I'm, supposing he's not doing it because if we took virtually any stock that's trading today that suffered in the crash of 1929, in hindsight, someone today would probably LOVE to have been there to have bought as much as they could.

 

I've not gone through the exercise I'm challenging Mr. Medwin to do....but let's take Coke for example (KO).....  I have no clue where KO was in 1929 but I'd near sell my wife today if I could take her proceeds and buy KO at the HIGHEST POINT prior to the crash of 1929....  

 

Again, I've not done this nor looked up anything but every fiber of my body says that would be a highly winning trade (but for my wife who might take issue)

 

 

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