Covid19 redux

[314carpenter]

Just want you to look at this curve showing daily Covid-19 new cases count in my home state of Wisconsin. Like a 2 hump camel. This is what happens when your state legislature determines the best move is to break stay at home orders and instead have 400,000 people go out and vote in person, all while simultaneously closing thousands of polling stations forcing everyone into endless lines for hours. So now the pot has been brewed and it is all fresh again. Cool. Thanks for helping us out. GOV

https://infogram.com/covid-19-diagnoses-and-7-day-average-in-wisconsin-2020-1h7z2lgerzly4ow

[Deang]

Viral shedding is a *****.  

[BassBlaster&TweeterHeater]

With all the inflated and miscategorized death numbers being flung at us like primate poop by the monkeys in the MSM I vote for ignoring all the flying fecal matter.

[Jeff Matthews]

3 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

I found a piece of paper stating that all restrictions have been lifted. It's kind of old, though. It's dated September 25, 1789, and written in cursive.

 

An excerpt:

"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

Congress didn't make any law shutting things down.

[geoff.]

Mosquitos just came out where I live.

 

What was wrong with DDT again...?

[Sancho Panza]

1 hour ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Congress didn't make any law shutting things down.

Worse. Executive Order, they did nothing to stop.  Thanks, Ike.

[314carpenter]

1 hour ago, geoff. said:

Mosquitos just came out where I live.

 

What was wrong with DDT again...?

I think that was wild birds eggs having thin or no shell. So not really an egg at all, compromising the future generations of wild birds, some of which happen to eat billions of mosquitoes.

[Travis In Austin]

6 hours ago, Deang said:

I added up the numbers in that chart.

 

Covid-19

54,131

 

Flu 2018

57,938

 

Again, keep in mind the Covid numbers are for three months while the Flu numbers are for a whole year. We've also been staying at home more and social distancing, which is keeping the numbers lower than they might have been.

 

The Covid-19 number is from the 26th. Since then, there have been 8,444 more deaths for a total of 62,575. We are averaging 2000 deaths a day. The average deaths per day is starting to climb again, and will continue to climb as things open back up.

 

If we stay with 2000 deaths per day, and I see no reason for them to drop, especially with this push back to normality and no vaccine -- we could expect to see 490,000 more deaths between tomorrow and the end of December. Add current total for a grand total of 552,575 dead. 

 

If infections climb and start to double every week like they were, the final number will be worse, much worse. We could be looking at near a million dead.

 

I suppose it could just disappear. Right?

Given enough heat, sun, and inhaling Lysol, it could. Not.

 

The Bubonic plague still exists, rare outbreaks on West coast still occur.

 

I believe the only virus declared to be eradicated is smallpox. 

[DizRotus]

39 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

I believe the only virus declared to be eradicated is smallpox. 

 

Rinderpest is also an infectious disease that is considered eradicated, but it was caused by a virus passed between cattle.  It was not a virus infecting humans.

 

Polio was once considered eradicated by some, but it still occurs rarely in Pakistan and Afghanistan.  According to Wikipedia, the wild rate of infection in 2019 was 175, with  vaccine derived cases at 364.  

 

As a child raised by Christian Scientists (luckily, I escaped), I was not given a polio vaccination.  As an adult, my internist gave me the initial dose of the oral polio vaccine, but then changed his mind.  After discussing it with colleagues, they decided my danger of contracting vaccine derived polio was greater than the risk of wild exposure, unless I planned travel to Afghanistan or Pakistan.

 

Unfortunately, my dreams of visiting Afghanistan and Pakistan remain unrealized.  My older son said Afghanistan has its charms, but he has no desire to return.

 

 

[Dave A]

I wonder how many of the deaths are due to people like [moderator edit: political]

 

[tube fanatic]

More “encouragement “ about the food supply:

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-meat-shortages-could-195836344.html

 

 

Maynard

[Bosco-d-gama]

4 hours ago, DizRotus said:

 

Rinderpest is also an infectious disease that is considered eradicated, but it was caused by a virus passed between cattle.  It was not a virus infecting humans.

 

Polio was once considered eradicated by some, but it still occurs rarely in Pakistan and Afghanistan.  According to Wikipedia, the wild rate of infection in 2019 was 175, with  vaccine derived cases at 364.  

 

As a child raised by Christian Scientists (luckily, I escaped), I was not given a polio vaccination.  As an adult, my internist gave me the initial dose of the oral polio vaccine, but then changed his mind.  After discussing it with colleagues, they decided my danger of contracting vaccine derived polio was greater than the risk of wild exposure, unless I planned travel to Afghanistan or Pakistan.

 

Unfortunately, my dreams of visiting Afghanistan and Pakistan remain unrealized.  My older son said Afghanistan has its charms, but he has no desire to return.

 

 

Derived polio does not directly come from getting vaccinated for polio. Derived polio does come from humans who were vaccinated. For a short while after a vaccination for polio the benign virus replicates in the gut. That benign viral load then gets excreted and for a short time can infect others who have not been vaccinated. Even then it will not cause a case of paralytic polio. But - the genetically modified virus can get passed among large population of unvaccinated populations and can mutate into a pathological form. That is derived polio.

 

The virus used for the vaccination has been genetically altered to not cause paralytic polio but appears to the body to be enough like polio to illicit an immune response and impart immunity. Voila you got vaccinated, did not get the disease but did get immunity from the disease. But that genetically altered virus will excrete from the body and can percolate through unvaccinated populations and mutate back into a pathologic form. When analyzed they can tell it came originally from a vaccine form because they know what mutations they assigned it in the 1st place. It’s a little complex but the key point is that you do not get polio from getting vaccinated for polio (these days). It also points out the need for public sanitation management.

[Bosco-d-gama]

As of today there are 102 covid19 vaccines in various stages of development. 8 of those are in clinical trials. 1 has shown to be effective in monkeys. In the midst of the chaos this may seem slow but for a new vaccine this is a record pace. Typically it takes 10 years from concept to syringe for a new vaccine. For a new virus not even on the books until a few months ago this is an impressive feat for both medical science and our leadership. They hope to have something usable by fall at the earliest.

 

Can you expect perfection from a ‘fast track’ vaccine? Nope. There will be complications and in a broad sense the application will be a calculated risk. They will work to deliver a safe and effective vaccine, but the public will surely be the final determinant of both safety and efficacy. 

[billybob]

Read Russia not doing well with the virus.

[babadono]

6 hours ago, DizRotus said:

Unfortunately, my dreams of visiting Afghanistan and Pakistan remain unrealized

Hee Haw

[CECAA850]

6 hours ago, DizRotus said:

I was not given a polio vaccination.

My 2 oldest brothers are old enough that there was no vaccine to be administered as they grew up.  They both contracted it.  The disease caused one of my brothers legs to rotate so that his foot was almost backwards.  My mother worked with him for the longest time to straighten it out but now it's about a half inch shorter than the other.  You'd never know it to look at him or how he walks.  My second oldest brother ended up spending time in an iron lung.  It was a horrible disease.  I'm glad you were lucky enough never to get it.

[DizRotus]

18 minutes ago, CECAA850 said:

  I'm glad you were lucky enough never to get it.

 

Me too.  None of my 3 siblings got it.  We were beneficiaries of herd immunity.  It makes me crazy when anti-vaxers work against herd immunity in the name of some unscientific conspiracy theory, while benefiting from its protection.

 

My younger brother, who graduated from USNA ‘75, received a polio vaccination, along with everything else in the world, so that he could deploy overseas.  My older son also got vaccinations for polio, anthrax, you name it, before he was deployed to Afghanistan.

 

I understand why my internist changed his mind about giving me oral polio vaccine, as he felt the risk outweighed the benefit, again thanks to herd immunity.

[Sancho Panza]

^^^ Good practice of medicine.

 

For most, the benefit of the Vac. exceeds the risk. Good to know your physician weighs this against the other, in your case, where the opposite is true.

[KlipschFish]

19 hours ago, JL Sargent said:

As of May1 there are 3.3 million cases of covid 19.  232,806 total deaths wordwide and 958,131 recoveries worldwide. As per Reuters Business and Financial News.

[KlipschFish]

Coronavirus cases more than double in one week after Colorado meatpacking plant reopens. Hmm